Indy/Pitt Under

[humdinger]

For the first time all year, Staley, Bettis, and Fast Willie Parker are healthy. Big Ben is back, but his strength isn't exactly airing it out 40 times per game. I expect Pittsburgh to run run run run run all day. They will want to shorten the game to have a chance vs. Indy.

On the other side of the ball, Pitt has a good D and may be able to slow down Indy more than most teams do (which means they may be able to hold them to under 27 points!).

All in all, I expect a few long (13 play, 7 minute) drives, and a final score of something like 21-17 or 24-20. I love the under.

Because I think Pitt will score a time or two, I also like (but much less so) Pitt.

Good luck everybody.

hd

[VarlosZ]

The game may well turn out as you predict, but I wouldn't feel at all safe betting the under. After a low-scoring first half which is still weighting down their O/Us, Indianapolis has reverted to last year's form of scoring and allowing lots of points. Over their past five games, the average total has been 64.4.

Over the whole season, Pittsburgh's average total has been 39.7 -- low, but not really low.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers can move the ball when they need to. It may be that they intend to grind the clock, and that they can do it successfully. Still, it's probably at least as likely that Indy jumps out to an early lead, forcing Pittsburgh to open up the offense.

Indy, 35-20.

[humdinger]

[ QUOTE ]
The game may well turn out as you predict, but I wouldn't feel at all safe betting the under. After a low-scoring first half which is still weighting down their O/Us, Indianapolis has reverted to last year's form of scoring and allowing lots of points. Over their past five games, the average total has been 64.4.

Over the whole season, Pittsburgh's average total has been 39.7 -- low, but not really low.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers can move the ball when they need to. It may be that they intend to grind the clock, and that they can do it successfully. Still, it's probably at least as likely that Indy jumps out to an early lead, forcing Pittsburgh to open up the offense.

Indy, 35-20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a couple quick points.

Pittsburgh has healthy RBs for the first time all year. That will likely hold the score down, as Pitt will quite possibly dominate the TOP battle.

Yes, Indy's scoring has picked up. However, there last 5 games have been vs:

Houston twice
St Louis
New England
Cincy

All of those teams have way worse Ds than Pitt, and 3 of them have significantly higher powered offenses.

I certainly don't expect another 13-6 (CLE) or 10-3 (JAX) game, and there's definitely a chance this game goes 38-21 (I'm not some "lock" predicting tout). However, I think it's most likley that this game goes under.

[as an aside, if I was to tease this total, I'd tease the over, not the under].

Best of luck,

hd

[20Five]

Pittsburgh #3 against the run.. and they blitz alot.. Im expecting Peyton to have his way with the Steelers secondary

I also think the Colts Defense hasnt really shown much against any team with a valid O... and granted pittsburghs not going to come out and light it up but I think the total is one to stay away from here.. good luck!

[VarlosZ]

I'm hedging on this game. I like the over, so I've got Over 47 (-111), one unit. If that doesn't come through, though, I think that Pittsburgh has a very good chance ot win outright, so I've got the Steelers ML (+306) for 2/3 of a unit. I expect to lose one of the bets, but I'd be surprised to lose both.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm hedging on this game. I like the over, so I've got Over 47 (-111), one unit. If that doesn't come through, though, I think that Pittsburgh has a very good chance ot win outright, so I've got the Steelers ML (+306) for 2/3 of a unit. I expect to lose one of the bets, but I'd be surprised to lose both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Is a Colts 24-17 win (or something similar) that difficult to conceive?

I think sometimes with these combination "hedge" bets, people lose sight of what they're betting on or against. You're basically betting on the PITT offense- which is probably the worst of the four major units in the game- on the road against a Colts defense that has given up less than 14 ppg at home this year.

Not saying that the bets are bad, and I could certainly see one or both hitting in this game, but I don't really get how they're a hedge.

[VarlosZ]

I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

[humdinger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's curious, because I'm liking the under even more. They spent over 4 minutes to move the ball 29 yards. Their D is slowing Indy way down (except the one 80 yard bomb). Their "Balanced Attack" is indeed balanced but short 5 yard passes are about the same as runs. They keep the clock running and don't move the ball down the field too fast.

hd

[VarlosZ]

The under is looking like the better side at the half. Still, Indy's offense has tended to make good adjustments to quality defenses and pick up the pace later in games, so we'll see.

Good luck.

[VarlosZ]

Just like I said: Colts and the Under.

Seriously, though, nice pick. I was right about the Colts jumping out to a lead, but Pittsburgh was unable to open up the offense successfully, and Indy put on the breaks big-time after that early 3rd Quarter TD. Oh well, I'll lick 'em next week.