Hit set but flop is draw heavy: did I protect or wimp out?

#1 10-01-2005, 06:36 AM

Not really enough hands to get reads yet. Mostly loose-passive table.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 (poster) checks, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Flop is scary for my set, since any spade has a flush draw, plus there are many straight draws possible. I figure betting now will make every draw call and give them good odds to call again on the turn. My only hope of protecting my hand is to bet or raise a safe turn and hope to get the draws out, leaving only Ax or maybe Tx. I thought this might work with an EP limper in front of me who I hoped had an A or T and would bet, allowing me to raise.

Turn: (3 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

As you see it was checked to me. At least my bet still cut down the flush chasers odds more than a flop bet. I did get some folds, as I had hoped. I do realize that flush draws can still call here, but the call isn't as profitable as it would have been if I had bet the flop too, and had I been able to raise, it would've been unprofitable.

I still feel wimpy for checking the flop, though.

River: (7 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls.

The A most likely makes the EP limper trip As or he slowplayed the flopped flush, so I happily cap with my boat.
Final Pot: 15 BB

So bet or check on flop? Definitely bet turn, right? Pretty easy, but I don't know if giving a free card on the flop is better or worse than the EV you gain by cutting opponents odds more by the turn bet into a smaller pot.

silkyslim · #2 10-01-2005, 06:39 AM

i think you need to bet out flop. you probably have the best hand and if not you have 10 outs to improve. u might fold out a crappy spade that will ruin your day.

#3 10-01-2005, 06:53 AM

You need to bet out on this flop bro.

Yes bet the turn like you did.

Yes cap the river. nice.

Piiop · #4 10-01-2005, 08:06 AM

You need to raise preflop and bet the flop.

You're missing out on value when you don't bet the flop - a lot of it. Don't worry about the draws yet - it was checked to you 2nd to last, you need to bet. Maybe had someone bet the flop and a bunch of people called, then you could wait until a safe turn to raise.

RickA · #5 10-01-2005, 08:10 AM

I don't think you are ever right to give a free card. You might be trying to manipulate the odds against the flush draws on the turn but you are giving 5 players infinite odds on the flop. Inside straight draws in addition to low spades are stealing your equity. If you are beaten you still have 7 outs plus another 3 after the turn if the board doesn't pair.

WalkAmongUs · #6 10-01-2005, 08:15 AM

I agree...bet the flop because giving infinite odds is a big mistake. Also, even if you wait to bet/raise till the turn the flush draws will call anyways due to implied odds so it doesn't really matter if you make the pot a couple BB smaller on the turn.

Also, a bet or check/raise protects hands. Giving a free card NEVER protects a hand.

TomBrooks · #7 10-01-2005, 08:25 AM

I think you should bet the flop, ya.

stuartharris · #8 10-01-2005, 08:53 AM

For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that you're already behind on the flop to someone holding two spades. I think it wouldn't be far off to argue that betting into five people with 2.6:1 odds (actually even better--as someone else pointed out, if you miss the turn, you get 3 more outs) of catching your boat by the river is a value bet. Bet the flop.

hemstock · #9 10-01-2005, 09:33 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (24.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Qc Js (straight, queen high).
Hero has 9s 9h (full house, nines full of eights).
MP3 has Qs Ts (two pair, tens and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 27.25 BB. 

Definetly bet the flop. By the river you have 10 outs to improve to a full house and you have a huge equity edge.

TennesseeKid · #10 10-01-2005, 11:11 AM

I thought you played it perfectly.