Help me get my AF +2. Middle pair hand with outs

[RickA]

I agree about folding more and looked at this area first. However after 25000 hands I am only going to showdown 28% of the time and only winning 48% of those. This got me to thinking there must be some marginal areas that I could push harder.

[memphis57]

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only winning 48% of (showdown)

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Don't most people want this slightly over 50%? Could you be calling down too many hopeless hands? Those calls would lower your AF too.

On the hand in question, I probably would have played it like you did, except I would have raised preflop. Against a TAG I'd rather have the aggression lead. On the flop you have a pair and a backdoor flush draw - you have to fear the A and a flush is only 4% likely so you can't raise on the cards. Turn comes and now a 2nd-nut flush is 20% likely and you still have the Q-pair, so I'm betting that, but still lots of holes so no sense reraising. Then the river bings trip Qs with a good chance to win, well worth raising.