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#31
10-27-2005, 11:15 AM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
[ QUOTE ]
How often is UTG calling our donkbet on the river? It looks as if he has KK-JJ and wants to call down to see the A that cutoff has. Now, the guy in front of him bets out. He's got to be thinking of letting this go a large percentage of the time, no? Not only does the guy behind him probably have an ace, but now the guy in front of him donkbets the river and if he calls, he'll probably get raised. Sure, he could be a really bad player and call anyway, but how does that affect the line? I'm thinking maybe now we should C/R if we assume UTG is going to fold anyway and then call a 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] or C/C going for the overcall from UTG and avoiding getting 3-bet. 
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#32
10-27-2005, 11:55 AM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
Bet/3-bet seems sound vs. unknowns. UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet. CO looks like a naked ace.
If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB. If you c/r, they might both fold, and you're netting 1BB, and it's hard to imagine them both call, so you're risking losing 1BB to win as much as you can expect to win if you c/r anyway.
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#33
10-27-2005, 12:11 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
[ QUOTE ]
UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet. If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB. If you c/r, they might both fold [/ QUOTE ] If I'm UTG, I'm folding every time to Hero's river donkbet. Why would he want to keep it? CO would fold for one more if we C/R? Wouldn't he have to put us on precisely 56? If anything, he's calling for peace of mind.
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#34
10-27-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace.
But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise.
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#35
10-27-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
[ QUOTE ]
You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace. But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise. [/ QUOTE ] I guess I'm assuming he doesn't have an ace too much because of his line. How often do you think he has an ace?
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#38
10-27-2005, 12:58 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, trap homeboy in the middle. [/ QUOTE ]
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#39
10-27-2005, 01:01 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
I'm in the bet/call camp, going for 2 from UTG. If UTG folds to my donk then I still think I call. What reasonable player in the CO raises this river to my donk out of nowhere with less than a boat?
I can't fold, and he won't either, so he only needs a boat 1/3 of the time for my 3-bet to be EV neutral (assuming he's no idiot who will cap with trip A).
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#40
10-27-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: I hit my draw...now what?
[ QUOTE ]
Disclaimer - I only jumped on 5/10 last week and only have around 2500 5/10 hands under my belt, and thus may be overrating our opponents a little. [/ QUOTE ] You are overrating them by a LOT, IMO. The idiots at 5/10 are like Walter from The Big Lebowski -- their stupidity manifests itself in unexplainable brinksmanship and aggression. Mark it zero dude. You are entering a world of pain. Etc, etc. Coming from 2/4, it was an interesting transition to say the least... but the play is just as bad, though in different ways.
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