Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?

[jman220]

I'm new to Ultimate Bet, and to this table (only 1 orbit, this is my second time in the BB, and I haven't yet played a hand), so I have no reads, and then this hand comes up:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) converter

SB ($52.25)
Hero ($198)
UTG ($227.50)
Button ($390.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, Button calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $22</font>, UTG calls $15, Button calls $15.

Flop: ($67) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $67</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises all-in to $205.50 </font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button calls $205.50 </font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero????</font>.

My thoughts:
UTG's preflop raise indicates to me that he probably does not hold pocket 4's or 5's, although with no reads this is hard. My thought is that most people do not raise this small a pocket pair utg, I put him on an overpair, 10's or higher, maybe even a strong Ace with two clubs. The problem is Button, he called twice preflop, and called this bet as well pretty quickly, is he a maniac who is calling with a draw? Or does he have the goods enough percentage of the time to justify me folding here? My thought is that, at least half the time he will have made a set or better, however I am getting 5:1 on my money. But He may have a set or better as much as 80 percent of the time here, given the action. AA is one of my leaks.

Edit: The only read I have is that I chose this table because it had a high table pot average, and a high percentage of players seeing the flop.

Edit: Upon further reflection, given that It was a $109 call to win a $500ish pot, I now feel that the correct move here is calling, I have maybe 5 or 6 clean outs even if I am behind. Thoughts?

[Maulik]

yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

additionally, betting $55-60 should save you a few bucks in the long-run and give you the information you need, but that may be nit picking.

[jman220]

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yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

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So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

Edit: Or am I looking at this the wrong way?

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

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So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

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you are good 1/10 times here!

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

you are good 1/10 times here!

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Ok, that was my initial thought as well, but afterwards I started secood guessing myself, thanks.

[Maulik]

jman220,

don't worry about what the villains showed down this hand. calling in this spot will lead to bad poker.

[jman220]

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jman220,

don't worry about what the villains showed down this hand. calling in this spot will lead to bad poker.

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Haha, oh believe me, it has nothing to do with what was shown down in this hand. I was thinking about it from a purely theoretical standpoint, because I am aware that I do not play overpairs optimally postflop. But thank you.

[Ghazban]

I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

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i agree

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

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What do you raise to preflop?