22: 77 from the button on the bubble

[IdiotVig]

BB has been pretty laggy all tourney. SB is a little weak/tight. Obvious push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1335)
BB (t3490)
UTG (t1400)
Hero (t1775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero ?

[tigerite]

I'd push here.. the range of the BB has to be pretty humongous like any ace, pair, K9o+, K6s+, QTs+ and JTs. I understand he's a lag but a call outside of that range would be pretty ridiculous for most players. Even at a $22.

I struggle here with theory.

We basically have three players in a race for two spots, with you having a slight advantage because of stack. That means, theoretically, you have about a 70% chance of making the money at this point.

I think the BB's range is probably pretty huge here, no? If he calls, we are in a coin flip at best and at worst a huge dog to bigger pairs. I guess this is where ICM comes in? I finally just purchased SNGPT yesterday, so maybe I'll start to get a better understanding of things as I start to plug these type of hands into the calculator.

It appears I never made a point, which was supposed to be that I fear getting into (at best) coinflip situations when I am theoretically at 70%ish to make the money. Thoughts?

[durron597]

This is a pretty easy push.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I push this every time. I'm just trying to understand some basic theory.

[tigerite]

ucla, the reason is that the folds he makes (and yes even LAGs will fold here!) and the times he calls with A2-A7 make up for the times when he calls and you are a coinflip at best, and sometimes a big dog to 88+. $EV is strange that way, it mostly comes from how often your opponents fold. (That JJ example was an extremely rare one where the opposite was true)

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I push this every time. I'm just trying to understand some basic theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read tigerite's post, that's why I didn't elaborate further

Yeah, I get this and have gotten it for awhile (but thanks for reiterating it), I guess it's harder to see it with 9xBB in this situation. Like I said, I think as I begin plugging hands into SNGPT I will start to better see and understand the inflection points.

To this point I have just kind of memorized without understanding, but am trying to ratchet my game up a notch by understanding the theory better and then, hopefully, having a better "feel" for situations and be able to make the right move under the clock/MTing pressure.

[junkmail3]

Do you understand ICM? (The theory behind SNGPT?) If not, there are a couple of posts on here, maybe even in the 'shadow' STT EVERYTHING YOU COULD WANT TO KNOW thread about it.

That's pretty much all of the theory involved with push/fold. Figure that out, add in some calling ranges, and you've got push/fold theory.