Expected Number of Bad Beats?

[slohar]

Let me start by saying that this is not a bad beat story. I suffered what seemed like a large number of bad beats this evening and it got me wondering what is to be expected.

I played 870 hands this evening (4 tabling) and suffered 13 bad beats. I define a bad beat as being clearly ahead on the flop and losing to someone with an inferior hand that beats me on the turn or river. I do not include being beat by people with flush draws, open ended straight draws or even 2 over cards. Here is where/how I lost:

Turn - 5 times
River - 4 times
Gut shot straight on turn/riv (not included in above) - 3 times
Runner Runner Flush (not included in above)- 1 time

You may be thinking that suffering a bad beat on 1.5% (13/870)of the hands played does not sound like much. Now to put it in a little more context, here are some more stats:

I saw flop 30.8% of the time or 267 times (this includes some short handed play)

I folded on the flop 10.6% of the time or 92 times. This leaves me with 175 hands.

I bet or raised 29.8% of the time on the flop or 52 times. 52 times i led out because i thought I was ahead (or semi-bluffed or led out with unimproved preflop raising hand) and i suffered 13 bad beats. That is is 25% of the time!

So I ask: what is a normal amount of bad beats that one can expect to experience over time?

Im case you are wondering, I lost 57.5 BB on these bad beats and 134.5 BB in total pots on these hands. I feel fortunate to have won a total of 34.5 BB in this session.

[balkii]

quit thinking about poker like this

[willy84]

Your question requires much more information than you can possibly provide. How much action is there before the flop? This can turn an inside straight draw into a clear call, and instead of a bad beat it's just tough luck for you. What do you consider to be a bad beat? Were your losses pocket pairs that hit sets, or were they pairs with overcards that hit again? How good of a player are you and how often do you get your money in with the best hand? The only clear answer to your question is that you are going to get bad beats ALL THE TIME no matter who you are. Take solice in the fact that the more it happens the more you're on the right side of the odds.

[slohar]

I have played about 22,000 hands per month for the past 2 years. I am well aware that bad beats are part of the game. Sometimes it feels like you suffer more than your fair share (sometimes not). I'm just curious as to what others think is the "normal" rate of bad beats. Chose your own way to measure it.

I thought that suffering a bad beat 25% of the times that I lead out or raised the flop was on the high side. What do your think? Even if a guy is justified in going for his gut shot straight, I still think it is a bad beat. At least it feels like one.

[lightw1thoutheat]

if youre me you suffer bad beats all the time since i havaent deposited at party in a while. (j/k)
tonight i went 0 for 13 with aa kk qq jj and tt.
0 for 24 if you include aks and ako

but dont mind me im in the middle of a 13k hand stretch where im down 25 bb

[slohar]

That's rough!! My win per centage with these hands is:

AA - 80%
KK - 64%
QQ - 66%
JJ - 54%
AKs - 63%
AKo - 55%

Sounds like you are going through a tough stretch of bad variance. Kee p your chin up and keep firing away. You are in a tough stretch and are pratically playing break-even poker. It could be worse.

[lightw1thoutheat]

im trying
but its getting tough
my stats look good, ever have a stretch where you just seem to lose all the big pots, thats where im at?

im a loser with aks ako aqs aqo over past 13k hands, this really hurts

[ihardlyknowher]

Your own advice:

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds like you are going through a tough stretch of bad variance. Kee p your chin up and keep firing away.

[/ QUOTE ]