turn a set (PP 3/6 NL)

[baiter]

PP NL 600...

I have about ~$700, Villain has ~$1000.

limp with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP...folded to BB who raises to $20. Seems like a solid but aggresive player. I recently sat down, so don't know what my image is. I call.

Flop is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] rainbow, pot is ~$43.

Villain checks, I bet ~$25, he thinks and calls. Pot is ~$93.

Turn is another 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Villain checks again, I bet ~$70, Villain calls. At this point I put him on AQ or AJ, maybe AK, thinking his ace is good (as I would have probably raised preflop with AK). Pot is ~$233.

River is a J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He checks again, I bet $100, he pushes all-in.

What's my move?? (Results to follow)

[soah]

Why does the button act first postflop?

[baiter]

damn, i meant BB. Edited. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[mgsimpleton]

So if my math is correct, it's about 500 to win 1400 or something like that, right?

Your original read was something like AJ, which would be a normal raise from the button, and he probably puts you on AK or AQ, right?

His possible holdings are AA, JJ, and AJ, but given that he is still in this JJ is out, so we'll say AA and AJ... given his check call line when you show strength, I'm leaning towards AJ. And all I have to be is 500/14 or 35.7% that he has AJ and not AA. Easy call.

[mgsimpleton]

Right, given that... scratch my original post. AA far more likely. Damn. Would he really check raise the river with AAA and risk you checking behind? That's read dependent, it's either AAA or a bluff representing it...

[soah]

The weak-tight part of me thinks that this is exactly how a bad player would play pocket aces. But if he's bad enough to play AA like that, then he may also be bad enough to play AJ like that. Or he may even be a dumbass with JJ. It's basically impossible to figure out what he has, because there are no two cards which should ever logically be played that way.

We can use a few rules of thumb... such as, a check-raise on the river is not a bluff. And when actions later in the hand contradict actions earlier in the hand, the latter action is more likely to truly represent the strength of someone's hand. So we know that he probably has a really good hand, it's just a question of whether it's good enough to beat a set of sevens. If the raise on the river were smaller I'd just call and pray, but with the actual stack sizes I'd be pulling my hair out.

[warlockjd]

Call. Top 2 or a set, probably top 2 IMO.

EDIT: The more I read, the more I am convinced that he does have AA. I am still not convinced enough to fold though.

[tbach24]

Check/call flop.
Check/call turn.
Check/push river.

There's not really much of a draw he could have and he might semi-bluff that. It comes down to this: would he raise PF with any PP? I think I fold here. TPGK would probably lead this flop. I don't think that a solid player pushes this river with AJ. I really think you are beaten by AAA.

[baiter]

I thought for a bit, taking his somewhat Loose/Agressive image in case, put him on AJ or 55, and called.

Villain showed 86o, for the nut straight.

[psuasskicker]

Would he really check raise the river with AAA and risk you checking behind?

Hero bet twice on a board without a whole lot of attractive draws. Why not check and see if he'll bet it again?

This hand stinks of a slowplay. But AJ is a definite possibility. You also have to think that 44 or 55 is a possibility too, cause he could have raised you PF with those hands since it was heads up.

If there's ever a time you can fold a set, this is it. But I have trouble getting off my hand here. I think this is largely read induced, and can't say that I would hate either play you make. I feel this one has no right answer...

- C -