Bubble fold or all-in?

[MonkeeMan]

This is actually from a 2 table sit&go. Down to last 5, top 4 get paid. Blinds are 300/600 with 50 ante. I'm the SB with 800 after posting, BB has 5K, UTG has 6K, CO has 900, Button has 14K. Everybody seems solid, the Button is the only aggressive one lately.

All fold to me and I've got AJo. Do I muck and wait for the CO to hopefully blind out and leave me with a very small stack but in the money, or do I push and try to accumulate some chips?

[Karak567]

Personally, I would push. 4-handed in the BB I have found this to be a strong hand.

[sofere]

Ummmm....no. Your giving the cut-off 2 chances to double up. He could have a good hand UTG, or he could get lucky in the BB (And since he's calling any two in the BB, I'd say theres at least a 2:3 shot that he's gonna double).

Here your sitting with an excellent hand with one person in front of you and are very likely to have the best hand if called.

[MonkeeMan]

I did in fact push. But I didn't really analyze the situation, I just hastily thought "good cards, need chips, push".

What I should have done is something like:
"Hmm, lets see, hands the BB could have that have me beat right now are any PP and AK, AQ, AJs. That's 3*2 (AA,JJ) + 6*11 (other PPs) + 12 (AK) + 16 (AQ) + 2 (AJs) = 102/1326 = 8% chance I'm getting the worst of it here. Of these only AA has me in real bad shape. Against the other 92% of hands I'm about a 3:2 favorite. If I do fold, CO has two more hands to double up, otherwise I'm in the money."

Even after this exercise I could argue either way on the decision. Any other factors to consider?

[TheMatador]

What I should have done is something like:
"Hmm, lets see, hands the BB could have that have me beat right now are any PP and AK, AQ, AJs. That's 3*2 (AA,JJ) + 6*11 (other PPs) + 12 (AK) + 16 (AQ) + 2 (AJs) = 102/1326 = 8% chance I'm getting the worst of it here. Of these only AA has me in real bad shape. Against the other 92% of hands I'm about a 3:2 favorite. If I do fold, CO has two more hands to double up, otherwise I'm in the money."

could you explain this math for me.

al

[bigredlemon]

is there any rules against just typing "I have AJ and will show"?

I think that's against poker etiquette right?

[MonkeeMan]

There are 169 starting hands in HE. These are broken down into 13 pairs, 78 suited, and 78 non-suited. There are 6 combinations for each pair, 4 for each suited, and 12 for each non-suited, for a total of 1326 combinations. Since we have AJ there remain only 3 combinations for AA and JJ, and we also eliminate 4 AK and 2 AJs combinations.

[curtains]

I wish I knew exactly what to do in these situations. You know 100% that you will lose the hand with AJ because God wants to punish you by giving you a good hand when you really want to just autofold and watch your opponent bubble.
Anyway I don't know the answer, it requires some math I'm sure. Stacks are so high that your chances of getting higher than 4th if you win arent so great (although they are definitely there).
If you fold and your competitor survives his BB, then if you survive your BB, the onus is usually back on him.
Aj is what about 60-62% against random 2? Meanwhile your competitors chance of surviving the blinds should be well below 50%, and if he does survive them, you still can survive them in return, and its back in his corner.

(Probably you should call? Especially because difference between 3rd+4th is same as 4th+ bubble, thus just making the money isn't as important as a typical 1 table sit and go and this gives you more chance at the higher prizes, but I really don't know the answer)

[raptor517]

put it in there, double up, double up again, 1 more time, and put yourself in contention to win.

[curtains]

The pay structure makes it more enticing to play the hand. In these events the jumps from 5th-4th and 4th-3rd and so on are all worth the same, whereas in a normal 1 table sit and go, the jump from 4th-3rd is worth twice that of 3rd-2nd.
If this were a 2 table step event on party with top 4 qualifying, this would be an easy fold.