hand from stars 500

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
And last but not least, I would absolutely call on the river. The hand I fear most is 88. When he shows J-10, or busted diamonds take the pot. Also, you have him covered by 50k, which is plenty of fallback money.

[/ QUOTE ]

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason to check behind the flop is to play a smaller pot in case you somehow flopped trips on him. But if this is his plan then raising the turn doesn't follow through with that. If controlling the pot size was his main concern then he'd just call the turn and probably just call or bet when checked to on the river.

It's possible he flopped a monster and slow played you. I'm sure his range is huge for opening from the CO, so he can have hands with 3s in them. I still think it's more likely that he puts you on a hand less than trips and figures you can't call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly his flop check is all about controlling pot size with his weak hand. If he has A8, raising the turn is dumb. He would call and call a small bet on the river. The only reason for him to raie the turn is if he has a mega monster or is trying to bluff/semi bluff you.

Very nice post.

[colson10]

btw, I really hate leading this turn unless you're planning on pushing when he raises, which isn't a horrible line. Players like this just don't check behind on the flop and give up to a half pot bet, especially at this point in the tournament.

c/ring all in on the turn is a fine line, I think.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
I read it as a bluff. Either that or he flopped trips/fullhouse/quads. Checking behind the flop and raising the turn is not consistent with an overpair.

I really doubt he checks behind the flop with an overpair. Why would he not give you a chance to see where you're at with a small pp or c/r with air or whatever. The only reason to check behind the flop is to play a smaller pot in case you somehow flopped trips on him. But if this is his plan then raising the turn doesn't follow through with that. If controlling the pot size was his main concern then he'd just call the turn and probably just call or bet when checked to on the river.

It's possible he flopped a monster and slow played you. I'm sure his range is huge for opening from the CO, so he can have hands with 3s in them. I still think it's more likely that he puts you on a hand less than trips and figures you can't call.

And Steve, I've noticed you have had some success at tournaments. Please stick to tearing up the ring games. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate the reply, your logic seems pretty solid. I think you and JV are right, I should have spite called him on the river.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason to check behind the flop is to play a smaller pot in case you somehow flopped trips on him

[/ QUOTE ]

I am seeing a lot of overpairs and flopped sets when the PFR is checking the flop HU.

I know you and JV are very good at this game, but I can't easily say he weak with the flop check, more often than not I'm seeing big hands here, especially with the turn raise coming behind it.

You guys may know WIllian Hill better than me, and have a better read, but against random $100MTT+ players, I see a ton of big hands here.

In a deeper game lots of hands don't bet the flop so they don't start a big pot without the goods, but shallower, it looks more like an invitation to put some chips in, especially with the turn raise.


Regards,
Woodguy

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
William Hill took the exact same line against me at the final table with seven left.


[/ QUOTE ]

Que Pasa? Who were you? Kevmike?

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
William Hill took the exact same line against me at the final table with seven left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you hitting FT in at least one big one every week?

Wow.

Regards,
Woodguy

[HiatusOver]

Well, I was sweating Steve through the final 100 or so players in this tournament. I really thought WilliamHill was on a move this hand the way the hand flowed. My instict really said move, basically based on everything Colson said. The pot control is the main thing. Also that river push screamed to me that he put Steve on a pair smaller than a T and praying that he folds it. Thinking more and more about it I really think its ridiculously close. The turn is probably misplayed for sure, but when we get to the river...to "Gracz it" or not to Gracz it is a very tough decision.

Basically the guy either had 99 a hand with a 3 or a bluff. Its hard to get 3 of a kind in this game, so I am leaning towards call.

One more thing to think about...when this turn gets raised, the guys range is really HUGE (like any 2 that he has gotten to the turn with) so a push seems good to me on the turn, only problem is u are gonna be drawing mighty thin if called so its more of a bluff than a semi-bluff.

The range narrows when the river is pushed I guess, but by how much? A good player is gonna realize that Steve's most likely hand here is a weakish pair and its not easy to call this river push with a weakish pair, so if the guy is reading the hand correctly a push with any 2 seems about right. Its almost like the guys turn raise was small enough to push the river and induce a fold if he sensed weakness, well we showed weakness so he pushed...either that or he had quads

[Schaefer]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, I really hate leading this turn unless you're planning on pushing when he raises, which isn't a horrible line. Players like this just don't check behind on the flop and give up to a half pot bet, especially at this point in the tournament.

c/ring all in on the turn is a fine line, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

C/raising all in is a pretty big overbet unless he pots the turn. I guess checking with the intention of calling a half-pot bet and c/ring a pot-sized bet all in sounds like fun. I obviously don't have a ton of experience with online tourneys and weird lines always mess with my head but my initial reaction is that the guy will usually have a big hand here. Does he really have enough fold equity after his raise on the turn gets called? I guess maybe he checks an overpair behind on the river and only pushes with huge hands or nothing and you're right. Meh. I suck. At least we agree on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Schaefer

[Nomar]

I think your hand becomes apparent to William when you call the turn raise.

I was sweating this tournament, and at the time, I thought William checked the flop with no hand, riased the turn to blow you off, then when you called, (most surprising thing to William), I think he now realized you have a draw, if you had dust you would fold, and if you had a smaller PP you would fold, and anything strong all the chips were going in. So when you called, your range is not that big, diamonds or some straight draw. He knows you shouldnt call to improve with a hand like 55, so he thinks you think you have 8 or 9 outs.