Bubble fold or all-in?

[raptor517]

i still dont think it would be an easy fold in a step 5. of course, the structures would be different and the stacks would too, but i still wouldnt fold this hand. the other short stack could pick up a hand and double up leaving you with very little chance to get anything better than AJ against a random hand. i put my chips in there 99% of the time.

[curtains]

raptor you misread. I meant a 2 table step 2 event on party. These are the $11 or $55 events where only the top 4 qualify for the next level.

[raptor517]

oh, fair enough.

[Merlyn22]

[ QUOTE ]
Any other factors to consider?

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you playing to try to win or to get in the money?
BTW, I'd push.

[ChrisV]

Don't try to do that hand by hand breakdown of what the BB might have. Just get PokerStove and run AJo versus a random hand.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 63.5633 % [ 00.63 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 36.4367 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { random }

You get knocked out about 35% of the time. I would say that's about the probability CO will double up, too. Then after that, you probably have about a 25% chance to beat CO into 4th spot, if you folded to 800. I don't think that makes up for the increased probability of higher placings I get when I double to 2200, so I think push is right. But I do think it's really close.

[bookish]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't try to do that hand by hand breakdown of what the BB might have. Just get PokerStove and run AJo versus a random hand.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 63.5633 % [ 00.63 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 36.4367 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { random }

You get knocked out about 35% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this right? Isn't it the case that you would only
get knocked out 35% of the time if the BB always called?

Are you ignoring the fold equity here? Or has my patient months of reading this forum all been in vain.

<re-lurks>

[MonkeeMan]

How about calling for 300? If BB checks, I get to see the flop and evaluate. Who knows, we may even check it down from there and the CO is still in danger of blinding out. If BB raises, I call/push. The major negative I see is that a 500 stack is a long way from the top money. So, does a call have any merit when my stack is so short?

[MonkeeMan]

Thanks for the link and suggestion.

[col4000]

If the BB is solid, I don't think there is any folding equity. BB is getting 3.4:1 on his/her call - the only way this call isn't correct is if BB has 2 undercards to an overpair. Given SB's short stack no way BB can confidently put him on overpair, so should be calling with any two cards.