I'm confused about this one...

#1 07-28-2005, 12:48 PM

So. Tournament's about to narrow down to the final table - 3 tables started, 5 places paid. I'm short-stacked at my table, 2270 in chips, with blinds at 75/150. I'm in the small blind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter

CO (t5150)
Button (t6510)
Aidaen (t2270)
BB (t3040)
UTG (t2895)
MP (t3240)

Preflop: Aidaen is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Aidaen raises to t400, BB calls t250.

Flop: (t800) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Aidaen bets t500, BB calls t500.

Turn: (t1800) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Aidaen checks, BB bets t600, Aidaen folds.

Final Pot: t2400

Ill-timed aggression on the flop? My thinking was that it was a scary board and he might be compelled to fold a low club or top pair, medium kicker.

Another thing I wonder about is my chip position relative to my bets - how should that have impacted my bets?

Any input is appreciated. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

danger_mouse · #2 07-28-2005, 01:05 PM

I would have played it the same way. Tough luck.

nightlyraver · #3 07-28-2005, 01:47 PM

I would not have played it this way. First, you state no reads, so let's just call the BB a "typical" player. The first thing to look at is the preflop raise. I would actually seriously consider a push right off the bat. He is folding the vast majority of his holdings in such a spot so an open-push is easily +EV no matter how deep the stacks(see 2+2 article about pushing from the SB in NL tourneys). If I'm not pushing, I'm raising to t500, which will force BB to call a decent sized raise and this helps us to limit his range. Going to the flop, I'm probably not betting here. If he called with an A, he either made a pair and will raise or he has something like AQ. He probably is not calling with a worse hand and if he does have AQ with the nut flush draw, he is also raising. If he has a pocket pair, then he is also raising unimproved as he should feel pretty comfortable on this raggedy flop. Thus, the only reasonable hand that BB could have that we are ahead of AND would like to fold out AND will not raise us here is a hand like QJ or maybe JTs w/o a club. His call is extremely curious, but I think that probably means he has a monster. In any case, once he calls we are through with this hand. He needs to fold to the continuation bet more than half the time for this play to be reasonably profitable. Unless this player calls too often preflop and is very weak postflop, I'm not betting here.

#4 07-28-2005, 01:50 PM

I think you played it right. If you had more chips, you maybe could have tried a check-raise bluff right there to try and scare him away in the face of a scary board. But, in your situation, you simply did not have a good enough chips to make this move, and it was best to fold and wait for a better opportunity to move in....

danger_mouse · #5 07-28-2005, 03:09 PM

I don't really follow Nightly's post-flop analysis. How is the hero ahead of QJ and J10-- if he had a club, yes, but he doesn't.

I don't agree with Nightly's all-in pre-flop raise suggestion with 15BB and no antes. Maybe at 12BB, but 15? That's just playing scared, I think.

Pulplife · #6 07-28-2005, 03:23 PM

I like your line against a tight or solid player.

I think the pf raise to $400 is just right. You are raising for value here, and are way above the average hand. I would be happy whether he folds or called the $400.

The $500 bet on the flop is ok, but I would need to know that the big stack will lay his hand down if on a draw. If he is laggy, or has shown down speculative hands, I would probably not take the shot. With his stack he may be inclined to hang around if he caught a piece of the flop or has a flush draw.

The turn fold was all you could do, he was going all the way with this hand.

nightlyraver · #7 07-28-2005, 04:18 PM

My bad, didn't realize there was a J on board. In that case, the decision not to bet is easier. The only broadway hands BB could have that we are ahead of are AQ,AT,KQ and all of those raise if they hold a club. We also don't really mind if they stick around should they not hold a club. I feel that the risk of the flop getting checked and BB pairing up on the turn for a win does not justify a bet in this case.

The all-in preflop is undoubtedly a +EV play. I'm not going to explain it as the math has already been proven in the article I sited in my original post. It is quite certainly not "playing scared." However, there are reasons to pass on this +EV play. First, players who are risk averse may decline this play as they may not want to risk their tournament life should they get called. This is not a good argument, mind you. The better argument would be to pass on this +EV play and opt for a more profitable +EV play. For example, a hand like AT may not call for most of his chips from the BB, but the same player may call a standard raise; OR you may want a call from a player who is apt to lose a lot after the flop since they play poorly.

danger_mouse · #8 07-28-2005, 04:30 PM

Link please?

I'd like to read a post suggesting pushing AK all-in with 15BB. It wouldn't be the first time my dogmatic stance to something gets adjusted in the face of wisdom.

TomHimself · #9 07-28-2005, 04:40 PM

raise more pf IMO

nightlyraver · #10 07-28-2005, 04:47 PM

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...Bragg0506.html

The article is mostly about short stack play. However, if you look at the charts along with the last few paragraphs of the article, you will see that open-pushing with AK from the SB is always profitable no matter how deep the stacks and no matter how tight/loose the BB is. The loser the BB the higher the variance but the greater the profit.