Burningyen's bustout hand (how would you play it?)

burningyen · #1 07-10-2005, 12:33 AM

I started this hand with 14k, villain (CO) was table chip leader at about 30k. He was limping into as many flops as he possibly could and was playing well after the flop except for a bizarre call of a pre-flop raiser's all-in with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a Qxx 2-heart flop vs. when Villain had nowhere close to the proper odds and losing the pot would have crippled him (pre-flop raiser had KK, turn came 9, river came J). SB was tight-passive with about 7k.

Blinds 150/300, 25 ante, 10-handed

Hero posts BB, folded around to Villain, Villain calls 300, Button folds, SB calls 300, I check with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I thought about raising, but I had very little fold equity with Villain and decided I would rather see a flop with this hand.

Flop (1150): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero ?

Spladle Master · #2 07-10-2005, 12:49 AM

Flop is easy. Bet 900 or so. If you get flat-called, the turn is trickier.

gumpzilla · #3 07-10-2005, 12:55 AM

I would feel a little more comfortable with this hand if you had slightly less behind, as then it seems reasonable to try and get your chips in on the flop. As is, I think I probably check-call a bet from villain here (assuming no theatrics from SB) and then fire out on the turn if I miss my draw. If the action goes check-bet-c/r from SB, then I might go ahead and bust out the push overbet on the flop because it's likely to be expensive to keep drawing if I whiff on the turn thanks to the SB.

ansky451 · #4 07-10-2005, 02:38 AM

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I would feel a little more comfortable with this hand if you had slightly less behind, as then it seems reasonable to try and get your chips in on the flop. As is, I think I probably check-call a bet from villain here (assuming no theatrics from SB) and then fire out on the turn if I miss my draw. If the action goes check-bet-c/r from SB, then I might go ahead and bust out the push overbet on the flop because it's likely to be expensive to keep drawing if I whiff on the turn thanks to the SB.

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I strongly disagree with just calling any flop bet. You have a monster draw- you want to get in as much money as is possible on the flop. If the CO has been aggressive when checked to, this is an easy check raise. If you think hed raise you with a pretty weak hand if you lead out- id opt for that, because then if you bet out he raises, and you push, you really put him to the test without 2 pr or a set. I really dont like just calling this flop ever. Even against 2 pr you have a better chance at winning the pot than he does. Play this hand as aggressively as you possibly can.

Seadood228 · #5 07-10-2005, 03:19 AM

If villian plays well I'm assuming he'll take a stab at this flop with any two, and the SB might be compelled to put in a c/r bluff given that this flop has likely missed your hand. IMO that's the best way to get the money in on the flop with the most amount of fold equity. I think things get a little trickier if the SB folds for the reasons already mentioned.

Personally, I think it's a little too early to be pushing this draw if the SB doesn't come along. I like Gumzilla's lines, especially against this type of player. There's still a good chance you can outplay him on the turn and milk a bet from him on the flop, plus you can still get away from your hand with minimal damage if the turn is ugly..

Things change if the villian is the type of player to drastically overbet a pot, although it doesn't seem like he's the player. Then I'd be more temped to c/r nearly allin.

gumpzilla · #6 07-10-2005, 10:18 AM

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I strongly disagree with just calling any flop bet. You have a monster draw- you want to get in as much money as is possible on the flop.

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I want to either get it all in, so that I'll get to see both remaining cards if called and I have some fold equity, or I want to try and keep it kind of cheap. I don't want to leave myself in a big pot when it comes to the turn and get fired at again, usually. If I were in last position, then a flop c/r would probably help me get a free river, but as is, if I check the turn I'm likely to be raised, so I'm going to need to put more money in on the turn, either check-calling or blocking. If I just check-call, then putting this money in on the turn leaves me back in basically the same place as if I'd c/r'd and gotten a free river, so it's not so bad.

Sluss · #7 07-10-2005, 10:42 AM

If the villain has been making half pot continuation bets I like the check raise here to about 3500.

I don't know what your image is at this point, but I would be leading into this flop with a 750 bet very often. If I think the villain will re-raise me with any two I'll lead out and then I'm set to push in on him here. This is the point in the hand where you are the most +EV.

sirtemple · #8 07-10-2005, 11:45 AM

My three options in order of preference are:

1 - If a bet is likely to get raised, I'm betting so I can re-raise all-in. Lead w/ a half pot sized bet.

2 - If I doubt they'll raise, but will bet out, I'll check so I can raise all-in.

3 - If I think they'll only check behind and won't raise me I will only bet a small amount maybe a half pot bet.

I don't think 3 is likey, so I'm either checking or putting in 600 bet with the intention of raising all-in.

Unless you're up against a set you're a favorite to win. (I'm suprised a set is a favorite here. With 15 outs I'd expect you to be a favorite no matter what your opps have, but Pokerstove doesn't agree.)Your odds shrivel if the turn misses you, and your action shrivels if it hits you, so I want all the money in now. If I win a small pot I'm content, I'd rather get called though. But I don't want to have to put money in on the turn.

500apm · #9 07-10-2005, 11:53 AM

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I'm suprised a set is a favorite here. With 15 outs I'd expect you to be a favorite no matter what your opps have, but Pokerstove doesn't agree.

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Thats because a set got outs to a fullhouse that beats your flush/straight.

BZ_Zorro · #10 07-10-2005, 12:23 PM

This is unbelievable. I don't play multis any more, but many posters are saying you could/should push - isn't that a little retarded? Your poker life in a once a year $10,000 buy in event is on the line and you're 50/50 (or worse) to win if you get called.

This is simple stuff. Go for your draw but never, ever push. It's not like the blinds are killing you.

edit> and it's not like he's a short stack either - he has you well covered and might even decide to gamble himself.
Too much aggression with this hand at this stage is crazy.