No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?

[realwtf]

Pionniacle has there odds here Link

Daniel Negreanu is a 243 to 1 right now and is the highest
Phil ivey is second at 301 to 1

oops that is to win the whole thing.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I wasn't able to get a piece of anyone at the main event, I took a shot with $100. I bet $10 each on 10 pros to make the final table. All of the pros I picked had odds at 100 to 175-1. I don't recall the odds for each and I know that these guys aren't all the best, but they are players who have been hot or who I enjoy rooting for.

Darden
Cunningham
Forrest
Raymer
Tony Ma
Arieh
Habib
Watkinson
Tomko
Luske

Wanted to bet on Sklansky but there were no odds for him :-(

Whether this is a good bet...I don't know...but it's a way for me to get some action on the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine a final table without at least one of those players. Except luske. He will bust out.

All you need is like an 8% chance that ONE of them makes it, and your move is +EV.

[Dan Rutter]

Mike Caro writes about what the real odds of the best player in the ME winning the ME are at this link. For those who do not want to look the link he says 1,639 to 1 against the best player winning the event. He explains a bit further on the link. Maybe these odds can help predicte the actual making the final table odds

http://www.poker1.com/absolutenm/tem...7&zoneid=2

[REL18]

I saw on sports betting andy bloch getting 250-1 making final table and chip reese 225-1 these are the best odds ive seen still seems bad and while i think mike cairo is to high he does seem about right. but basically i think its simple pros are 3x the avg buy in about id say avg player needs 3-1 chip lead to beat lets say a whose avg pro um maybe parhard freidman and would need about 4-1 to beat a negrenu berry lvl player

[whitelime]

[ QUOTE ]
but basically i think its simple pros are 3x the avg buy in about id say avg player needs 3-1 chip lead to beat lets say a whose avg pro um maybe parhard freidman and would need about 4-1 to beat a negrenu berry lvl player

[/ QUOTE ]

This is false. Assuming a reasonable blinds relative to stack sizes, no one should be more than a 60-40 underdog in a heads-up match as the inferior player can just move-in every single time (see TPFAP by Sklansky).