No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?

[TwoNiner]

Just looking at Pinnacle's odds to reach the final table of the main event and pretty much everyone is under 100-1. Say there's 5000 people, are these just rediculously low odds? The only "relative" value I see is Chau Giang 90-1, Andy Bloch 120-1. but if they are all off by a mile then it's not much of a difference between that and Ivey's 38-1.

[mackthefork]

I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

[ismisus]

the deadest money have less than 1 million to one shot. Some people will call all their chips with 10 hi, hoping for runner runner

[mackthefork]

Thats true, but no one is going to lay that price, anyway what the diffence between 0.02% and 0.0001% between friends. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Mack

[oneeye13]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably

[/ QUOTE ]

doesn't this mean he has roughly the same chance as a random player? i'll take this bet.

[mackthefork]

If I was running a book, which I am not, I would be able to take your bet, however I can't afford to accept this liability and as such it would be unfair of me to take your bet. Just out of interest, what odds would you consider as correct for Mr Hellmuth?

Regards Mack

[meow_meow]

Check the odds on betfair - they are offered by members on both sides of the coin, not by the book itself.

If you think 100-1 against for the top pros is way too much, you can lay the following pros:

Doyle and Chan at 99:1
Daniel, Hansen, Helmuth, Lindgren and Harrington at 64:1
Ivey and Lederer at 54:1 (!)
John Juanda and Devilfish at 79:1
Luske at 94:1

Of course, you'll have to put up a ton of cash to take these bets....
(these are all "to make final table" btw)

[lozen]

Realistically based on the field and amount of luck still needed on the coin flips. 300-1 minimum odds with most players at 600-1 even a good player

[niwotyalpi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

[/ QUOTE ]


LOL. The thought of you eating both Harrington's books live online is busting me up. Come on Dan I wanna see this.

[mackthefork]

Just to clarify after I finish eating I'm going straight onto Amazon to order them again, seriously good stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Mack