Learning Short Handed-Overcall on river?

[numeri]

Bet the flop because of your pot equity. You only need two callers to make it profitable. I might even cap after the 3-bet, just because it's fun. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

As far as the river goes... MP is definitely telling us he has something on the flop, but it could easily be TP. I think we have to call versus an unknown. I expect to win the ~8% of the time that I need to.

[jba]

1) if you get called by 2-3 you are getting decent value. If you get called by one there is an ok chance you'll take it down on the turn. go ahead and bet the flop.

2) i'd feel a lot better if that flush had hit but I think they just have Qx or worse enough in a pot this big to call the river. button especially looks like a Q or worse