Chipleader w/overcard flushdraw and recently wild image

[AJ_Rider]

Daily rebuy tourney at the Bike.

Hero has just gained the chiplead after making a play with a pre-flop raise with 95o to a limp and hitting 2-pair on the flop, doubling through a JJ overpair. Otherwise Hero has been playing noticably tight.

Next hand gets dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the CO. Blinds are 25/50 just after the first break, table is 9-handed. 3 limpers and Hero limps along, OTB folds, BB plays, 5-way.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG bets about the pot, UTG2 calls, MP folds.
UTG and UTG2 both have about 2000, Hero has about 3500. BB and UTG are both tight conservative, UTG2 is new to table, older asian man.

What is Hero's play?

(Hero thought for about 5 seconds and pushed, BB folded, UTG folded, UTG2 calls with J9o. So two other questions are, if you know only UTG2 will call and he has a weak pair, would you push? And, if you are the UTG2 and think that CO is pushing with 2 overcards and a flush draw, would you call all-in?)

[BlackAces]

I would just call and see the turn. You have position on the other 2 players, and you probably have a lot of outs here. A push is probably going to be read as a draw, since almost nothing that would beat top pair would have limped preflop, then pushed here. An overpair would have raised to define the limpers' hands preflop, and a set wouldn't want to drive everyone out by overbetting the pot so massively. About the only hand that might push here is 97, and if you've been noticeably tight, they probably won't put you on that.

[AJ_Rider]

I don't think calling here is the right choice. The odds of hitting the flush or overcards is just under 3:1 if I get ONLY ONE CARD, and since there are 2 callers that's just about break even. Now, with implied odds and position, I can see your point. The problem is that with 2 callers if a Q or T hits I won't feel as good about it. If I raise all-in, I get the odds of 2 cards and 15 outs which means I'm a favorite to anything less than two-pair or a better flush draw (i.e. I'm a favorite to J9). Furthermore, I get a lot of fold equity (could you have called me with top-pair 9s, J kicker for your tournament survival?).

Basically, to summarize, I could call here if I thought I'd be able to get away from a Q or T if necessary, and possibly I would have, but I wanted to secure my outs and odds a bit more soundly. Doesn't make sense to me to not use the power I have as the big stack.

[Hosayif]

Im pretty new to this, but in my experience, you need a lot more than 1.5 times the other stacks to bully them bc losing to the other guy puts you pretty low in chips

[bruce]

With two cards to come you are a slight favorite. On the flip side in a small rebuy tournament, in general, pushing to induce a fold is a very risky play. Some players will
perceive your push to be a big draw. The overwhelming majority of the remainder's thought process will consist of
them looking at their hand and seeing that's it's top pair and calling without taking into consideration of what you might have.

I think a better play is to raise the initial bet around 3x.
With a hand as weak as your opponents it's unlikely he will reraise. If you miss on the turn you'll more then likely get to see a fifth card. If you don't improve your hand you
will lose only 750 instead of 2000.

Bruce

[sirtemple]

I like the push, but I have a high tolorance for varience. Your getting the odds to make pushing correct, and there's decent chance that you can get players to laydown top-pair mid kicker or worse. Your position sucks on the turn if you call. If a brick hits you no longer have odds to call another decent bet. You want to see the river with this hand. A third [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] should kill your action, so implied odds on the turn are poor. Unless these players will pay off a flush, you should push.

[AJ_Rider]

I like the idea of the "free card" raise (even though I know that doesn't exist in NL) by raising 3x instead of pushing. It does indeed look scarier and less easilly read, and I will still call an all-in if someone pushes.

However, the question that no one has addressed is what you would do is you had the 9s J-kicker and someone that you were almost positive had a flush draw and 2 overs pushes all-in and has you covered. In my opinion, the correct play is to fold. Let's give a different situation. What would you do if someone pushes all-in pre-flop and you're almost positive they have AK and you're sitting with 66 and they have you covered? The key here is that it's just after the first break and you've already at least doubled up. Even though in this case of the 66 you are a favorite if your likely read is correct, you shouldn't be risking your tournament survival this early on a coin-flip especially since you've already accumulated such a good start. In the case of the J9 it's even the poorer end of the coinflip at around 45%. If it was me with the J9 and I knew he was on a draw with 2 overs I fold, bitterly. I generally think I am better than the field and am not going to take these risks when my survival is on the line. I did not have a read on this player, and considering he was an older asian gentleman he was probably either very good or a gambler, so a fold or a call with a mediocre hand were equally likely.

So, he called, and I was glad to see that my overcards were live in addition to the flush outs. I was the favorite, didn't hit, and got sent down to around 1700 in chips, which was still plenty to work with (and in fact I doubled up not too long afterwards). If I had hit, I would have been around 5500 and could have completely dominated the table and I am confident that I would have made the money without too much difficulty.

cheers,
AJ

[bruce]

You're assuming your opponent is a thinking player. Only a moron would play J9o to begin with. There is no way he will fold top pair on the flop. If I were him I would not play the hand to begin with. If I knew what you had and I felt like
I was a weak player I would gladly put my money in taking slightly the worse of it. If I am skillful I fold on the flop.

Bruce