JJ and overcard in big pot

Aaron_ · #1 11-01-2005, 01:37 AM

MP2 is 40%VPIP and 1.0 PFAF after 30 hands - no good reads. Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

Cryptologic 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 1 folds, Button calls, 1 folds, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.60 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.30 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (8.30 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.30 BB.

#2 11-01-2005, 01:48 AM

Probably weak tight, but i'd fold it.
1) There are no draws he could be betting
2) Say there was a draw on the board, most wouldn't bet it into a pfr, who's raise will drive out 2, hurting his implied odds.
3) You still have 2 left to act and a Q is about the worst card for you when you've been cold called.
5) The pot isn't too big. You're getting about 4:1 to see a showdown and have little chance of improving.
I suppose there's a slight chance he's betting something like A and a paired X or a mid PP, in which case your raise is necessary to drive out OC's behind you.

WordWhiz · #3 11-01-2005, 01:54 AM

Grunching. Looks good to me. You can't just call on the flop--even on a relatively drawless board like this. Must raise to protect hand. If MP3 has the Q, oh well, but he could also be betting a six, a deuce, or a pocket pair.

But you must value-bet the river. No draws came in, and he called you on the turn as well. If you really think he has the queen, you should have folded the flop. If you don't, you're good here 95% of the time and should bet for value.

#4 11-01-2005, 02:01 AM

You think he's calling with less than a pair of Queens 50% of the time? I don't.

Trix · #5 11-01-2005, 02:19 AM

this is perfect, the closest street is the river.

Aaron_ · #6 11-01-2005, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You think he's calling with less than a pair of Queens 50% of the time? I don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The break even point probably isn't 50% given the chances he doesn't have a queen.

Hypothetical:
25% of the time he has the queen, and calls 100% of the time.
75% of the time, he doesn't have the queen, and calls X% of the time.

We only need a call ~33% of the time he has second best for us to break even (if the chances he has a queen are right). I think a fish is calling much more than that, even UI. Plus, there's some fold equity, albeit small, when he does have it. It's close, but I think this is a value bet situation even if the chances he does have a queen are higher.

MrWookie47 · #7 11-01-2005, 02:41 AM

Almost. It's a value bet if he has a hand you beat 50% of the time GIVEN thant he calls. If he never calls your bet, there's no value in it. If he never calls w/o a hand better than yours, then there's negative value in it, since he'll fold often, but will cost you a bet when he beats you.

TomBrooks · #8 11-01-2005, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong because when an overcard to yours comes on the board and someone bets into the preflop raiser and there are no apparent flush or straight draws, they usually have paired the top card or better and you should usually throw your hand away.

Aaron_ · #9 11-01-2005, 03:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Almost. It's a value bet if he has a hand you beat 50% of the time GIVEN thant he calls. If he never calls your bet, there's no value in it. If he never calls w/o a hand better than yours, then there's negative value in it, since he'll fold often, but will cost you a bet when he beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is what I was saying, only with the chances that he does or doesn't have the queen weighted in. Assuming that he has the queen less than 50% of the time, and he calls 100% of the time when he does, the times he needs to call WITHOUT the queen is LESS than 50% of the time.

(Chance he has Q (-1BB * chance he calls) + (Chance he doesn't have Q (1BB * chance he calls)) = 1

If he has a queen less than 50% of the time, we need him to call fewer times when he doesn't have it to make this a valuable bet.

Aaron_ · #10 11-01-2005, 03:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong because when an overcard to yours comes on the board and someone bets into the preflop raiser and there are no apparent flush or straight draws, they usually have paired the top card or better and you should usually throw your hand away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's what I wanted to get into on this post. How much of the time does villain have you beat in this situation (given fishy, somewhat aggressive), and is raising to find out worth it?

Any thoughts?