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#1
09-23-2005, 11:15 AM
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I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
This is from the Stars $300 from last saturday. I have been meaning to post this, but I don't have the HH so I need to do it from memory.
Started with about 120, we're down to about 40, 18 paid. I have played with quite a few players at the table before, and have decent reads on them, although I don't know that they have decent reads on me- I would assume so though. The level of play has been pretty good so far, with 1 or 2 sort of donks at the table. The table has been playing pretty tight, but aggressive. I have about 8000 in my stack, avg is about 7500. Player directly to my left has me slightly covered. Blinds are 100/200 with a 25 ante. I raise from 3rd or 4th to act with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. (Comments can be made on this obviously, but with relatively deep stacks, I dont think this is too bad at all.) Player directly to my left who has been fairly active, calls. Everyone else folds around. Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. pot: 1700 Having played with this player before, I figure that if I lead out small, he will raise me with almost any 2, seeing me as weak, and when he does this I will push, and therefore put maximum pressure on (hopefully) his missed overs, or middle pair- if he has those. So I bet out 600, he raises me to some number between 1500, and 2000, I don't recall exactly. I decide to go with my original plan, and I push for ~7000. Thoughts? 
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#4
09-23-2005, 11:47 AM
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Re: I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
With 8000 chips with the blinds at 100/200 and 25 ante, you're stack really isn't that deep. Stricly based off HOH Volume 2, you're M is ~15, which greatly reduces the value of these small suited connectors. If the average stack was 12k or even 16k, then these types of hands would be much better to play.
I don't mind the raise with 65d to try to steal the blinds, but you really want to end this pot as quickly as possible. Playing these types of hands postflop without position is extremely tough. I personally hate probe bets. I would lead out for 1000-1200 on this flop, hoping to take the pot down here without getting reraised. Since you have a read that he will raise with 'any 2' after a weak probe bet, do you know if he's capable of laying down a mid pair like 88, 99, 66, 55, or other hands like JT, AT, QT, KT, T9, 89, Ax diamonds in this spot? There are so many hands he could have that you are well behind. And with an active player behind you, I don't think this type of range is unreasonable. Personally, I would probably fold after his reraise and wait for a better spot. You'll still be in ok shape after laying this down.
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#5
09-23-2005, 11:49 AM
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Re: I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
[ QUOTE ]
ya i always put 40 bb in the pot when i hope my opponent missed. good play bro [/ QUOTE ] Lloyd, could you invite this guy to be on the expert panel for the next Hand Analysis exercise? I really like his hard-hitting analysis.
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#7
09-23-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
I think I've seen this movie before. It always ends with the villain having something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]...
I think if you are going to raise preflop with this hand then you're basically committed to playing it this way if you catch a flush draw or open-ender. I think Hickboy is right that the stacks aren't really deep here, particularly not after you juice the pot with a preflop raise.
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#9
09-23-2005, 12:07 PM
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Re: I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
I like the play, given your read. You have about a 5% chance agaisnt AdTd, but against ATo, you are down about 3-2. With pot odds and folding equity, you have good expectation, particularly if villain is likely to have totally missed the flop.
It is kind of a matter of style, but I am not crazy about the raise with the suited connector unless you have a good chance to steal the blinds. The money is not that deep.
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#10
09-23-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)
Personally I like this play. If this guy is "fairly active" it would be tough to put him on a narrow range of hands pre-flop [what was your raise? 3bb?]. Is your image TAG?
Your bet on the flop is weak enough that I would question: (a) are you trying to get me to bet into a strong hand? (b) are you trying to take down the pot with a weak continuation bet? [less likely] (c) are you trying the old "weak, out of position bluff re-raise all-in on a flush draw" play? [Just kidding, my depth of analysis would never put you on the play that you are making] The only way I can get more information is to raise your weak bet, which I would do with almost any 2 cards. Your reraise all-in would force an immediate decision and make me fold alot of hands, including TPTK or an overpair.
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