Call off 1/4 my tall stack with AK vs. large overbet??

[ebaudry]

$30 MTT, 240 starters, currently 100 left, top
30 spots paid.

No read on the raiser.

Unless this guy is a total clown, I have to expect to be a little behind whatever he has right?

***** Hand History for Game 2869794203 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:16551713 Level:4 Blinds (25/50) - Thursday, October 13, 06:08:40 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(486348) Table #7 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: bigmac722 ( $2990 )
Seat 3: nutsinho ( $611 )
Seat 5: thecheese01 ( $1298 )
Seat 6: AMR999 ( $1340 )
Seat 7: billy_wu ( $1310 )
Seat 8: ebaudry ( $5070 )
Seat 9: JohnyBlaze_5 ( $3025 )
Seat 10: blackpuma00 ( $2826 )
Seat 2: P0kerD0n ( $785 )
Seat 4: VIP_32 ( $1910 )
Trny:16551713 Level:4
Blinds (25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ebaudry [ Ad Kh ]
blackpuma00 folds.
bigmac722 folds.
P0kerD0n folds.
nutsinho folds.
VIP_32 folds.
thecheese01 is all-In [1298]
AMR999 folds.
billy_wu folds.
ebaudry ???

[flyingmoose]

I'd fold, unless this isn't his first overbet push of the tournament. I just don't like getting involved against a person who opens for 60+BBs unless I'm sure that person is a maniac.

[Exitonly]

Alright lets think about this, what hands would he do this with?

AA/KK? Nah, no way he's open pushing 60bb's w/ those. I'll say no for QQ too.

JJ i know a few people taht are doofuses and think JJ can't play after the flop so i wouldn't be surpised to see JJ here. Same goes for 88-TT.

AK? Same story for the JJ, people dunno what to do after the flop sometimes, so i see them push this. This goes for AQ, and AJ too.

So, a rough estimate of what he could have here:

88-JJ, AJo+, AJs+.

vs that range of hands you are a 57% favorite.

That's a conservative estimate too, cause anyone that open pushes 60BB is liable to be a complete tool and pushing garbage.

And it's still early, ,so you have a ways to go before you can coast in, You have a pretty big edge here Even though the pot's not giving you that great of odds, you're a favorite in the hand so it doesnt matter.

Another way to think of it... probable worst case = you're 45% dog to add a nice chunk to your stack. best case you're 75% to add on a nice stack.

--

Call.

[Kevin West]

Just a correction for you guys, that looks like a 26BB push to me.

And I think the possibility of AA or KK has to be considered, although it should probably be weighted much lower. He's pushing a 26BB stack 2 off the button, so I think he could be doing this with a pretty good A. I'd probably call here because of that, but if you think he's only pushing with pocket pairs, I'm not sure you are getting the pot odds to call.

[schwza]

turbo-call. it'd be a more interested decision if you had AQ (i'd still call) or worse.

I'd also insta-call. If you happen to lose, you'll still have >50% more chips than the average stack, with a chance of increasing your lead to start to punish Seats 9&10.

It's slightly concerning that he's all-in knowing that a 4X stack and >2X stack was still to act. I imagine he could be doing this with AA/KK hoping one of you two caught a semi-decent hand to double him up.

But hell, call... you still have a diamond flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Toddy]

No brainer.. At worst you're a 55/45 dog..

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't like getting involved against a person who opens for 60+BBs unless I'm sure that person is a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the fact he did this suggest so?
I'd call. You've got a nice stack and if you lose...then you still have a nice stack.

[Rex Ruthless]

Seems to me that these donk-like moves are made with middle pairs and the knucklehead is too scared to play them on the flop if someone had called a more "standard" raise. So do you want to gamble here? No way are you up against KK or AA imho.

[nath]

Man, I've seen people make this play with crap all the way down to AJo and QJs. Call.