AQ - fold the flop?

mxer7734 · #1 08-22-2005, 11:43 PM

Was this hand a fold on the flop and was my PF raise here correct from the BB? My reasons for continuing were the two overs, and BDSD worth a total of about 7.5 outs. Villian was tight-passive so I thought he had at least a pair of tens and maybe I should discount my two overs outs to 3 instead of 6 just incase he had the unlikely two pair. On the turn I picked up the straight draw adding 2.5 more outs totaling 10 outs or only 7 if you discount the overs outs. Is my thinking correct here?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

hemstock · #2 08-22-2005, 11:46 PM

I'm propably raising against 3 opponents. If he reraises you, fold or fold the turn UI. If not, you can get a free card or a free showdown.

Kumubou · #3 08-23-2005, 12:00 AM

Raising here is only good in one of two situtations (that I can think of right now):

SB is FoS and raising would get UTG+1 to fold a better hand (any pair).

Raising would get UTG+1 to fold a hand that you would not beat by spiking a Q or an A. These hands would be AT, A4, A3, QT, Q4, Q3. I just do not see much value in raising here, especially if SB already has a made hand. The free card/free showdown may have some value, but there is no guarantee you will get it.

My default line here would be to peel the flop (that is fairly close) and fold the turn UI. This can change depending on game conditions, reads, phase of the moon, etc..

-K

Eeegah · #4 08-23-2005, 04:50 AM

I like every street. The turn is somewhat borderline since it's a small pot though; 7 outs is 5.6:1 which is just over what we're being offered, but if we make our straight we'll pick up an extra bet on the river so I'm fine with it.

Bodhi · #5 08-23-2005, 04:59 AM

I fold the turn because we don't have pot-odds to call.

Bodhi · #6 08-23-2005, 05:00 AM

That'd be nice if we had 7 outs. Remember that a split is also possible if the villain has a hand like AT and we hit the gutshot.

bjarne · #7 08-23-2005, 05:11 AM

Since your read on villain is that he is passive I'd raise the flop for a free card and fold the river UI.

Eeegah · #8 08-23-2005, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That'd be nice if we had 7 outs. Remember that a split is also possible if the villain has a hand like AT and we hit the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not just like AT but specifically AT out of all the hands an SB could do this with, unless Weak-Tight here suddenly decides that a pair of 4s is perfect for betting into a PFR. You can discount it to 6.5 if you want but even then we're still making it up when we raise the river, presuming he makes his crying call. It's close, but I think it's just barely +EV.

Edit: Villain could reasonably have AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T4, T3, 43, 44, 33 or a weakly played TT. Only one of those would cause us to split.

#9 08-23-2005, 05:54 AM

You had 10 outs to begin with. You're holding two BDSDs (A34 and TQA), and the pot is giving you 4.5:1 (to your 3.6:1). You call this flop without a problem. I was considering a raise, but you'd kill your odds by doing that.

On the turn you actually LOSE outs (1.5 to be exact, your other BDSD is now gone), so you're down to 7.5. That gives you 5.6:1, while the pot gives 5.5:1. Fold on the turn.

EDIT: Eeegah makes a good point. 7.5 outs, not 7--we're talking about the pot giving you 5.5:1, while your hand has less than that (that imaginary half an out makes all the difference). Call that turn, fold the river. You played it fine.

#10 08-23-2005, 07:40 AM

I've been playing 0.5/0.1 for a couple of months now and have read and tried to apply the teachings of SSHE. I read this forum regularly and think I am ready to expose my thought processes to ridicule. So here goes my first post...

The overs cannot be worth the full 6 outs, villain could have AT or QT (or even AK depending on the read). SSHE suggests discounting to 3. Does that apply HU? The A34 draw is worth 1 out and the TQA draw only 0.5 out. Best guess is therefore 4.5 to 6ish outs. Only if there are 6 outs are the pot odds good enough to call (and we don't know what UTG+1 will do).

After the turn, the straight draw is worth 3 - discounting 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The overs no more than 3 (we could be behind 2 pair, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] puts 3 to the flush on board and any other A may be a split. So that is 6 outs. If I'm right, it doesn't look like there are the odds to call the turn (even taking into account an extra bet we might make on the river if we hit).

For what it's worth, my preferred play would be to raise the flop (i) to fold UTG+1 and (ii) to put SB on a hand. Based on the read he is likely to fold hands like AK, AQ, KQ etc (which being passive he may not have raised preflop). If he bets out on the turn I would fold.

Am I just justifying a natural weak-tight tendency? Is there a hole in my thought processes?