AQ - fold the flop?

[WSOP Bound]

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

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I like the raise because it makes it possible to clear out UTG+1 and you have position to take a free card on the turn. Given your read on SB I think that most of the time the raise will scare him enough to get you the free card. The question would be how often do you get SB to fold. Of course that depends on your read of him.

Earlier someone mentioned that a raise would cut your odds on the flop which is true, but if it gets you the free card you are getting 4.5:1 to see the river. Getting 4.7:1 odds to improve by the river I think this is your best shot at this hand IF your reads indicate that it will work with high frequency. If not it's razor thin. The pot is giving you 8:1 to call here and your hand has 9.8:1 odds of coming in on the very next card. I always have a hard time with this, but believe that you need to be able to extract one additional BB when you hit in order to break even here. Although implied odds may give me a very slight edge here I think I either try for the free card or drop this here and now.



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A greater question here, then: Is there any way to reconcile the human aspect of this hand with the mathematical aspect? Can we quantify villain's playing style in any way in our calculations?

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Good question, but one that I've yet been able to answer no matter how many times I've tried. It is starting to appear to me that the easiest and most effective way to reconcile the "human factor" is to do the math to determine your options then use your reads to determine the most effective play against the particular opponent that you are playing.

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

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A tight-passive bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop. What does a raise accomplish here?

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What if the raise on the flop gets SB to fold? Read on him is tight-passive--raising the flop is more likely to scare him out of the hand than normal.

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Good question, but one that I've yet been able to answer no matter how many times I've tried. It is starting to appear to me that the easiest and most effective way to reconcile the "human factor" is to do the math to determine your options then use your reads to determine the most effective play against the particular opponent that you are playing.

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I'm guessing that this is one of those things (like the stock market or w/e) that is too complex to transfer to a mathematical basis. The best course of action is yours: use the math and supplement it with any reads. After all, the math is concrete, but opponents don't always stick to one style of play consistently.

[imported_The Vibesman]

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

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A tight-passive bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop. What does a raise accomplish here?

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What if the raise on the flop gets SB to fold? Read on him is tight-passive--raising the flop is more likely to scare him out of the hand than normal.

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I think this could work and will sometimes, but the pot seems too small to attempt this. When it gets to you on the flop, it's 8sb or 4bb. If you raise the flop and he calls, will you bet the turn? If you are trying to get him to fold, it would seem you must. If you do, that's 2bb so far in an attempt to win a 4bb pot. I don't think this works often enough to make up for the investment due to the pot size here.

This actually highlights the problem with my thinking, then. I tend to raise in order to knock out a tighter player; once he calls, however, its a whole other story. What do I do on the turn? River? Why did I invest so much in such a little pot?

Thanks for the good point.

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Does that apply HU? The A34 draw is worth 1 out and the TQA draw only 0.5 out.

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Can I ask how you came to these numbers? Simply for personal knowledge, of course--I skipped SSHE and went right to TOP.

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A no gap BD straight is worth 1.5 (eg. 234), a 1 gap is worth 1 (eg. A34) and a two gap is worth 0.5 (eg. TQA)

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Best guess is therefore 4.5 to 6ish outs. Only if there are 6 outs are the pot odds good enough to call (and we don't know what UTG+1 will do).

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At best, your pot odds on the flop are no more than 5.5:1 if UTG+1 calls. 6 outs means you're getting 6.7:1--so this is a clear fold by your logic. Yes?

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Are you confusing the turn? On the flop there is already 7SB in the pot when Hero acts - so there is enough for a call (with 6 outs).

Thanks for the input - by the way most people here would recommend getting SSHE!

[Raza]

Regarding the backdoor straight outs:

For A43 you will need a 2 to give you a gutshot or a 5 to give you a gutshot. So 4/47 * 4/46 + 4/47 * 4/46. This is something like 67 to 1.

For AQT it's basically the same. A K gives you a gutshot, and a J as well.



Together they are 33 to 1, which is about 1 out.

(You can just treat A34 as a 2 gapper since a 2 does not give you and OESD, so .5 + .5 = 1 for both draws)

Add 3 or 4 outs for your overcards and 4 or 5 outs sounds about right. I would fold the flop.