Independant verification of sites?

Hello all,

I know this question will be detested here and is asked by dummies like me, but is there any independant proof that online poker sites are in fact dealing str8. I know the various theories poeple have on here as to why they believe most sites are fair dealing. I was just wondering if there was any concrete proof. People winning longterm etc doesn't seem satisfactory and would be expected. The thought that sites wouldn't or don't need to risk the trouble that would accompany any manipulation is very naive. Bottomline profit manipulation is common in regulated businesses and often involves gray or illegal tactics. The risk of such manipulation is often no more worrisome to owners/operators than more mundane risk factors associated with business operations in general. In fact, the reward of some decisions far overwhelm the risks and become unavoidable. Of course there are examples every day on your television sets of companies and countries taking far more outrageous risks. I do know that there are many posters on here far more experienced an intelligent than my self, so I just wanted a better proof. I think I would benefit from the peace of mind that trust in a site would engender in me. Could certainly open my game up. Thanks in advance and don't flame me too bad ok?

There have been posts that did analyses on 100K plus hands and found every to be random. Someone else can post the links.

Besides, that, it's incredibly stupid and very bad business. The bottom is that such strategies would be found out sooner or later by looking at 100K or so hands (if they did it enough to affect the bottom line it would be noticable), and the scandal would cause them to their incredibly profitable business. It's entirely in their interest to be completely above board.

It's just common sense.

Since you posed the question, see if you to come up with a way they could rig the deck without detection.

Thanks for the reply,

That is the one I have heard most and seems reasonable but it is not even close to a proof. I was asking if there was anything approaching proof. Unfortunately I am not a statistical savant so I won't be the one developing a counter-proof. It just strikes me that everyone is so trusting of offshore unregulated businesses. If Pokerstars opens a stocktrading devision will you invest with them or perhaps use Fidelity instead. I think I would use fidelity but perhaps PS would offer juicy terms and a bonus on mutual funds.

There's a few things all the conspiracy theorists/"I'm not a conspiracy theorist but do you have any proof" posters have in common: they're lazy, know nothing about statistics, and demand undeniable proof. Seems a self defeating exercise.

Anyway, have a look at the FAQ for this forum, it's got a link to 230K hands of data that proves a random distribution in the long run. This doesn't talk about flopped sets etc, but do a search, there have been several threads about the distribution of various hands, flopped sets, you name it, over a large number of hands.

Thanks for the reply. I have seen the post in the FAQ before and it would be shocking if the 230K hands didn't come out looking properly random. I expect the stats to even out longterm. My suspicion is the same as many others of course. The random trip can be bumpy or smooth which can affect many thins in terms of play and profit. I use pokertracker and evrything is as it should be, as I expected it would be and will remain. I am just amazed at how confident people are on here. I'm up overall online as is my good friend. He is more inline with the bootsteppers here but he is also a robotic stat gobbler. Companies can be very creative when adjusting their profit margins. More creative than people that look at 230k hands, look at their bankrolls and listen to the fantastic stories of others and say "yup, makes no sense to manipulate anything." Good players are gonna win online longterm, I've never questioned that. I've only questioned the rate at which they win. Almost like trusting Vegas casinos back in the day by reasoning they would kill their reputation and business if they were caught cheating. Pretty naive. Do most of the people on here believe kids are dying in Iraq for anything more than incresed profit margins. If you can manage to believe and really comprehend that innocent American kids are getting holes blown through their spines for little more than business interests, you may begin to see that maybe just maybe an offshore, unregulated, gambling business may be a little tempted to adjust profits. until it can be proved that everything is totally legit, I'll remain skeptical. I'll also continue to play and win online.

[FlFishOn]

The proof you are looking for will never exist. To be assured of a str8 deal you would need to look at the code the site uses.

Any statistical test based on starting hands of flops is more or less worthless in proving site honesty. All that can prove is that they are not brain dead, since they'd be caught already.

I firmly believe that some sites are not honest. I'm 100% sure a major site, in the past, was cheating winning players. I also make my living online. Go figure.

[FlFishOn]

"Besides, that, it's incredibly stupid and very bad business. The bottom is that such strategies would be found out sooner or later by looking at 100K or so hands (if they did it enough to affect the bottom line it would be noticable), and the scandal would cause them to their incredibly profitable business. It's entirely in their interest to be completely above board. "

100% Pollyanna rubish based on nothing more than wishful thinking. It's quite easy to envision a nearly undetectable cheat that would be very profitable. I am no longer detailing it here since no good (for me) can come from it.

"It's just common sense."

Common sense is, in my experience, quite uncommon.

"Since you posed the question, see if you to come up with a way they could rig the deck without detection. "

Done.

[FlFishOn]

" I think I would benefit from the peace of mind that trust in a site would engender in me. Could certainly open my game up"

Winning is the test. Losing is not an indictment. Do you win what you think you should? Play on then. Don't win what you believe you should? Move on.

[ QUOTE ]
The proof you are looking for will never exist. To be assured of a str8 deal you would need to look at the code the site uses.

Any statistical test based on starting hands of flops is more or less worthless in proving site honesty. All that can prove is that they are not brain dead, since they'd be caught already.

I firmly believe that some sites are not honest. I'm 100% sure a major site, in the past, was cheating winning players. I also make my living online. Go figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely i agree.. you can never have proof, unless you played 500,000 hands with the same players and even then, people would say, "well that game was straight, but are all games straight?"

my only real suspicion is getting "rivered"/"runner/runner no one would play"/"sucked out" repeatedly to the SAME PLAYER OVER AND OVER AGAIN..... but i have had some amazing winning streaks too, and i have no idea what cards are coming.

Calm down..people are very defensive on here. So, neither of us has a definitive proof. I was simply asking if one exsisted. Have you ever heard of any business manipulating the market for a small boost in profits even though it would be damaging for them to be caught...yes. In fact it is more common than uncommon. That is just in the regulated and monitored business sectors in this country. Just seems very odd how quickly everyone can accept the theory that these offshore, unregulated, gambling sites are somehow much more honest than the majority of all other businesses. Gas stations price gouge, grocery stores, fund traders churn accounts etc.. but the offshore poker sites have saintly business practices. The stats are obviously gonna be fine longterm. would be incredibly dumb fo any site to have it any other way. But just because point B is where it should be doesn't mean the trip from point A was the straightest.