Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)

[PuckNPoker]

This is limit not NL..

[AmarilloJim1]

Woops...I would still fold...the pot odds should at least be 2:1...2 or more players...I would fold.

[PuckNPoker]

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I see it as very simple. At this point, you have nothing. The pot is only offering you even money, so a 35% draw is not worth it...fold.

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You're folding 35% ($2.80) of the pot, which is more than the $2 to invest to see the river. Plus you are putting your opponent on Ace, two pair or a set only and negating lesser hands. I think you're thinking far too weak-tight.

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I made a mistake, my odds were on the flop not the turn so the 2.8 is incorrect unless the KJ outs are live.

[PuckNPoker]

The pot odds for making your flush should be 4:1 and they are 4:1, breakeven if you just assume that you would only win by making your flush.

[AmarilloJim1]

The odds of hitting your hand, if you are including the 6 outs you have with the K J, may be more, but the pot odds are even. It is heads up right? Every bet made was called. Unless a few people saw the flop then folded. Personally, I would have never made it to the turn. Can you explain a flaw in my thinking?

Thanks,

- Jim

[PuckNPoker]

Well the OP doesnt explain how we got to the turn. But the pot is laying you 4:1, and just assuming you're flush is good gives you 4:1, taking into account that the villian may have less than top pair gives the possibility that in some way your KJ are live, pushing a breakeven call (which I would still make) to a clearly profitable one.

[AngusThermopyle]

Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand.

Again, you do not define "made hand".

Set? 2-pr? If so, 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] suddenly become dangerous outs if he is betting the turn.

By the description of him laying the hand down to a river bet if the flush hits, I assume you mean set or 2-pr rather than just A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or pocket Q's.

[Demana]

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Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand.


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This means that your only outs are to the flush.

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If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

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I should have been more explicit or made a better board because my goal was to have the flush cards be the only scare cards.

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There is $6 in the pot and your opponent has bet $2.

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Your pot odds are 4:1, but your odds of making a flush on the river are 4.1:1 (37/9)

If your opponent will not pay you off when your flush card comes, then calling the turn is -EV because you are not getting the implied odds needed to make up for your lack of pot odds now.

[Demana]

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Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

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Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

I disagree. You can absolutely count on this happening ~4% of the time.

In addition, if he has QQ, you have 12 outs, not 9, so clearly you have pot odds to call, and 4% of the time, you have additional implied odds.

Just because a given outcome is unlikely does not mean that those outcomes do not add to your equity.