20-40 Pocket Jacks hand

[Noo Yawk]

Pretty loose-aggressive 20-40 game.
UTG open raises. He likes to open raise pre-flop with anything, and only stays after the flop if he hits some sort of a hand or draw. A strong aggressive player who plays well post-flop 3 bets. I look down and see pocket jacks. Knowing that MP is trying to Isolate UTG, I go ahead and cap. UTG is going to cap anyway, and that means nothing.

The flop: A-5-6 rainbow.
Utg checks, mp checks, I bet, both call.

The turn: A(A-5-6)Utg checks, MP bets, I raise, UTG folds, MP 3 bets. I call.

River Q(A-A-5-6)

MP bets, I call.
How did I do?

[amerksmann22]

THERE IS NO WAY YOU ARE WINNING THIS HAND!

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
THERE IS NO WAY YOU ARE WINNING THIS HAND!

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] The correct answer, however, is forthcoming. I'm not saying yet whether you're right or wrong.

[turnipmonster]

certainly doesn't seem like you are winning, does it? MP is more likely to be isolating with a pocket pair than Ax, I think, but he could have an A. on the flop, it seems like a good spot for a checkraise if he does have an A though. you will bet 100% of the time, if UTG calls your bet he can checkraise and lead the turn.

so the lack of a flop checkraise makes me wonder if he has an A.

the turn 3 bet makes me think that he isn't afraid of AK, but in order for him to have 55 or 66 he must have slowplayed the flop. not an unreasonable assumption, although he may have lead out. I think a set is a possibility here.

what about KK-88?

his turn 3 bet and river bet make a bluff pretty unlikely. after his 3 bet though, you really should fold if you think you are drawing to 2 outs. so if he doesn't think you could have an A he may make this play with any pocket pair, trying to fold a better one and, who knows, maybe he gets called by a worse one.

I don't really know. I am just trying to think of a situation where you may be ahead, since I don't think you would have posted this hand if he has AK or QQ.

--turnipmonster

[badinfluence]

Regardless of the results, I think you misplayed this pretty badly. I think the last bet you put in is the turn raise. When MP 3 bets turn, I think it is time to shut down. You are getting 14-1 to call the turn 3 bet and I'd guess you are just about toast.

You don't mention anything about MPs play so from this I am inferring he is a pretty decent player since you think he recognizes a isolating situation. I also am just guessing thinks he realizes that you think he is isolating you, and then will make value bets out of position to ensure that you will not cost him EV should he be right. I see this play more often at these limits.

however, i am guessing that there is a reason to this post, and it some great story about a 87s 3 bet that didn't get there.

I still stick to my guns ...

[Noo Yawk]

Hi Turnip,

For what it's worth, I put him on an Isolation raise with a wide variety of hands that I can beat. The only hands that beat me on the turn are K', Q's Any ace, a set of 5's or 6's. Hands I beat are 2's,3's,7's,8's,9's 10's, and other assorted face cards.I put myself in the lead at the turn, and probably in the lead on the river. If he's going to win this pot, he needs to hit or move me off the hand, and he know's that.

[Nightwish]

Let's see, so MP is strong and aggressive. What possible hand do you beat on the river? I know you can't fold on the river, but why are you calling his 3-bet on the turn?

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see, so MP is strong and aggressive. What possible hand do you beat on the river? I know you can't fold on the river, but why are you calling his 3-bet on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the pairs that he would 3-bet if he thought he could move me off a bigger pair. Or if I'm beat an Ace,5's,6's, Kings or Queens.

[Noo Yawk]

"When MP 3 bets the turn, it's time to shut down"

I did. I only called. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[elysium]

hi noo
you can't raise the turn noo. calling looks like good money after bad, but in spite of a couple exotic possibilities that even if you spike the J you lose, calling the turn isn't awful as opposed to folding. the odds you're getting to spike combined with the slim possibility that you will get a free showdown, make calling correct.

folding, however, isn't too far from correct on the turn. the thinking here though is that your pre-flop action wouldn't have been carried out if you weren't prepared to stare this type flop and opponent down, grit your teeth and take the appropriate action that keeps you in the hand. the pre-flop call or cap under the conditions you describe is fine provided that you are prepared to make this turn call, and also do everything in your power to keep inside of the math, whatever little math there is in this one.

you don't have a lot going for you in this one. you fall victim to the fallacy that you must get this opponent to fold. if that was all you had going for you, then you'd need to make the assessment and go for the fold if that prospect had merit against pot odds. but you need to keep the precious little pot odds you get to spike, and combine them with a possible free showdown, grit your teeth and call yourself in bounds on the math side of things, as the world views the instant replay.

the river run deep in this one. you aren't getting correct odds to call. you are going to lose. to find out whether or not we should call though, we need to view the pre-flop one more time. i didn't say the pre-flop was awful, i just said that you burned the bridges behind you when you called or capped. sometimes that is not a bad strategy noo. it's unfortunate that this go around the road is blocked by atilla the hun, but that's the way things are. there are two schools of thought. you have sklansky, you have mason. mr. sklansky says you're 1000-1 in this spot with an over-caller in there. it's not that bad for you. your call will close the action. but you wouldn't like mr. sklansky's assessment of your chances. mr. sklansky folds here.

mason calls. mason believes, and i happen to agree, that a fold by you now will inspire opponents to take shots at you. if your style of play is such that opponents might consider bluffing you off your hand and that doesn't suit you, then call. personally i call it down.

folding the river isn't wrong though. you are facing a value bet. this guy expects you to call. you are going to lose.