A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

tipperdog · #1 07-26-2005, 09:23 PM

Like others, I've wondered why Daniel would issue his challenge. The widely-held consensus (S&M, Mike Sexton and others) is that Daniel takes the worst of it in these heads-up games, because he's allowing challengers to choose their best games. But even if you think Daniel's tournament heads-up experience gives him an edge, it's impossible to believe these are the most +EV games he can find.

So, why does he do it?

Thus far, explanations have included:

1. It's all a publicity stunt for the Wynn.
This has been pretty well debunked. The Wynn is not backing Daniel and that's that.

2. It's out-of-control ego.
Surely, there's some ego involved, but there must be more. If it's only ego, why not just play in the big game and try to bust Doyle, Chip, Jen, Phil, et. al?

All this leads to my very simple explanation. Why the challenge? Because it's the only game he can play.

Presumably, Daniel's contract as "ambassador" for the Wynn prohibits him from playing cash games at other area casinos (and possible out-of-area, as well). The Wynn people thought that Daniel would draw the big games from the Bellagio to the Wynn, but that simply hasn't happened. (Obviously, I'm not privy to their contract terms, but both Daniel and the Wynn have hinted that they have an "exclusive" relationship.) As a result of his exclusive deal with the Wynn, there are simply no high-stakes cash games in which Daniel can play!

So, what's a high-stakes poker action junkie to do? Daniel's answer seems as good as any I can imagine.

I would bet that had the Vegas high-stakes action shifted to the Wynn, Daniel would never have issued his open challenge. Instead, he'd be a regular in the Wynn 1K-2K or 2K-4K games. Unfortunately for him, these games just don't exist.

---

In response to the inevitable questions, do I really know anything? No, I'm just speculating.

In respone to the inevitable follow-ups, why do I care? I don't really. But I love pokah, pokah is nice and I spend way too much time thinking about things like this.

Discuss if you're interested.

Quicksilvre · #2 07-26-2005, 09:59 PM

I suppose it's plausible. I don't know enough about the challenge matches to say if I think it's likely or not, but it's more interesting a hypothesis than most I've seen.

GrannyMae · #3 07-26-2005, 10:08 PM

he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

perhaps daniel thinks it is EV+ to put some of it in play so his contract gets renewed next year.

this is daniel's way of marketing the room, and it has attracted a ton of attention.

sure, he could have banked his cash. i give him credit for sinking it back into the business. his business with wynn is himself. promoting the business is promoting himself. that costs money. however, in this set-up he actually has a shot at growing the money.

i think it is a brilliant promo.

Smoothcall · #4 07-26-2005, 10:26 PM

That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

CaptSensible · #5 07-27-2005, 05:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think about the 10's of millions of dollars that go into advertising budgets it's actually not that much.

tipperdog · #6 07-26-2005, 10:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

Michael O'Malley · #7 07-27-2005, 02:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any number can sound reasonable to the right person. Any reasonable person could sit down and figure out that this number is completely insane.

Mason Malmuth · #8 07-28-2005, 03:09 AM

Hi Mike:

I agree. While I'm sure he's getting a lot by most people's standards, $3 million sounds way too high.

best wishes,
Mason

MicroBob · #9 07-28-2005, 03:34 AM

i don't think granny just made up that $3 million rumor out of thin air.

pretty sure I had heard that once or twice around here as well (although maybe it was in previous granny threads, not sure).

anyway, I'm positive granny is not the only one who thought it was a $3-million deal (not disputing Michael or Mason here...just saying granny isn't the only one who had heard this).

GrannyMae · #10 07-28-2005, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Mike:

I agree. While I'm sure he's getting a lot by most people's standards, $3 million sounds way too high.

best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

true story...

i brought with me, and picked up more at the trade show, several new poker magazines. i also brought with me a couple of past issues of casino player.

while in vegas during the ME, ON THE TOILET in my room, i read this in a small sidebar story in one of the new mags or one i brought with me. i was surprised, and read it again and again.

coming home, i had bought so many gifts that i had to purge all my magazines i brought. so whatever publication it was in, i won't be able to find the hard copy story because i trashed them all.

while it is entirely possible that the magazine source got it wrong, i can assure that this was not a Granny, senility moment. o'malley would know more than most (except daniel and wynn), so i tend to think the story was wrong. however, this story is currently in print, valid or not.

i can't find it online, but since it was a new edition of whatever mag it was, it is possible the archiving is not done yet. i'll search again in a few weeks, but like i said, it was just something in a magazine and nothing i heard from any horse's mouth.