PL 5K Hand checkin

[GooperMC]

General Stats:


Position Stats:


Showdown Stats:


My Thoughts

Stats that I don't like:
- BB/100 could (should) be a little higher
- My W$SD should be higher
- I think I am being over aggressive which is leading to my low W$SD (players at this level don’t fold)
- Need to do a better job of adjusting my hand selection to position (play fewer hands in EP and more in LP)
- Very low W$SD with lesser hands (trips, 1 pair)

Stats that I do like:
- My PRF varies with position
- I am positive showing down everything except high card.
- VP$IP: I don’t have to fight to keep my VP$IP in the low 20’s it stays there on its own now.
- High W$SD with big hands (str8, flush, boat)
- High W$SD with 2 pair.
- Making money out of the SB?? This has got to be a fluke.

What I need to look into to working on in my next 5K hands:
- showing down less hands
- varying my VP$IP by position.
- learning when to ease up on the agression


I am going to add the precursory statement that I know this sample size is not large enough to draw high accuracy conclusions but I think it is large enough to discuss.

Anyone see anything that I missed? Anyone agree / disagree with my analysis?

[Jorge10]

BB/100 is fine, im at about 10 and change over 9k hands of 200 PL, above 10 seems fine, its a game with a lot of chopping you cant expect holdem numbers.

[gergery]

I'm running +19 BB/100 over 11k hands at 200 game so while I agree your #s are fine, its definitely possible to do better (i think i am running well, but not double a sustainable rate).

my vpip is higher, pfr higher, postflop agro similar and win % by position very different

[Big Dave D]

The holdem guys reckon it takes 200k+ hands to get a line on your win rate...I can't see why PL games would be quicker. If anything, I would expect them to take longer. I doubt anyone on either forum *really* knows their winrate online.

Having said that, comparing winrates is a fun but dumb exercise. I mean, you can't just *change* it. You can only change other stuff and hope THAT changes it.

gl

Dave D

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
The holdem guys reckon it takes 200k+ hands to get a line on your win rate...I can't see why PL games would be quicker. If anything, I would expect them to take longer. I doubt anyone on either forum *really* knows their winrate online.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is misleading. It is just confidence intervals and statistics. You will have a decent idea of your winrate long before 200k hands. Tho i'll grant 5k or 11k are both too short. Search for one of Homer's posts where he shows how to calculate it. And PL/NL games should have fewer hands as the standard deviation will be lower, tho maybe with Omaha it will be longer.

[ QUOTE ]
Having said that, comparing winrates is a fun but dumb exercise. I mean, you can't just *change* it. You can only change other stuff and hope THAT changes it.

[/ QUOTE ]

you really are getting cranky, aren't you dave?

[Big Dave D]

I'm old.

At least compared to the people that post on this forum.

And the winrate point is true.

I'm not sure about the stats thing. So much stats in poker is wrapped up in b*llshit and nonsense, and unfortunately our benefactors are just as guilty of it. But clearly SD would be much higher in PL. I'l have a think about it.

gl

dd

[GooperMC]

Thanks for the input guys. For the level that I am playing (PL $25) I believe a BB/100 in the low 20's would be sustainable but that wasn't really the point about this point. I am more interested in what you guys think about the analysis of the other stats.

[ QUOTE ]
What I need to look into to working on in my next 5K hands:
- showing down less hands
- varying my VP$IP by position.
- learning when to ease up on the agression


[/ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think I should work on for my next 5K hands? I don’t think that I have any gaping leaks but you do you agree / disagree with the "leaks" that I found? See any others that I missed?

[AnyAce]

Hi Gooper,
A few thoughts:

Seems like you could see a few more flops and then fold more often. That is, it seems like you are sticking to premium starting hands (holding down your VPIP), but then not letting them go when the board misses you or deteoriates on the turn or river (holding down your W$SD%).

I like to play more speculative hands sometimes if I can get in cheaply but then fold them unless the flop is very good.

My VPIP is in the high 20s and W$SD is in the low 60s (WR 17BB/100 at PLO8 $100 over 10K hands). BTW, in my PT database there are 8 players with double digit BB win rates per 100 (based on at least 1200 hands). Their average VPIP is 25 and average W$SD% is 58%. (Again, a small sample, but interesting I think).

As for your winrate you might want to run it through HOmer's calculation here (as Greg suggested):

Homer's Winrate

and see what the 95% confidence interval looks like.

Good luck
AA

[Mendacious]

These are my stats with a few more hands at that level...






Some comments:

1) I think your post flop aggression is low. My mason/dixon line for aggression is 1.5. That is the figure I use to seperate the icons in Pokertracker. I would describe you as passive. ONE CAVEAT... at this level, a little less aggression may be called for-- at higher levels it is not.

2) Your W$SD is very low in my opinion. You are clearly leaking here and need to tighten up. This will improve your aggression as well-- as you will be calling less often when you are probably beaten. Again, my mason/dixon line for W$SD is 60, and you are miles away from this. ANOTHER CAVEAT, your W$SD number will probably be slightly lower at this level for a few reasons: a) there are more times when you have to look bad players up, b) it is harder to chase at this level with good bluffs, c) you get stuck in a lot of all-in suckouts at this level from people who are sitting there with $10 buyins or less. Nevertheless, your W$SD is just too low.

3)I think position is overated at this level (or I just don't use my position nearly well enough at these level-- which is highly possible.

[Mendacious]

One other thing...

In my rating system, you are a Mouse (which is a bad thing. Overall I have mice as -7 BB/100 playes. You are MILES from being an "Eagle" or "Rock" in terms of your W$SD and MILES from being an EAGLE in your aggression numbers. I have Eagles at 22 BB/100s and Rocks at 13 BB/100 (there is very little variance for these types of players over the 50,000 hands I have in my database at multilevels.

This isn't to say MICE can't win, but statistically, people with EAGLE and ROCK numbers win consistantly, and more.