$100+/hr Playing Small Stakes NL: It's Possible

[XChamp]

I am a semi-pro player. I go to school and play poker 10-15 hrs a week on the side and average about $30/hr. I think I do pretty well for myself. When compared to my buddy, however, I pale in comparison.

We both started playing 3 years ago and have steadily built our bank rolls. Although I have been doing alright I have not been getting the results that my friend has. For a year he has claimed that he makes $100+ an hour playing simultaneous tables of low stakes NL. Frankly, I thought he was full of [censored]. I figured that $50/hr was much more likely, so I told him to import hand histories into Poker Tracker and when he has 20k+ tell me what his winrate is. Well that day came yesterday. He has 25k in poker tracker and his true win rate is $101/hr (NOT counting rake kickback or deposit bonuses). It's almost nauseating. I made sure he didn't "accidently" skip any of his losing days. I really did not think it was possible. The variance of his play is incredible. 3 times this past year I have hit $3,000 losing streaks playing the same stakes as him (and I play about 1/3rd as much as him), while his worst streak has only been $2,000 and that happened only once.

He is, admittedly, a very good player, but when I talk with him about poker (just about every day), watch him play and even play against him I really don't see the brilliance; I only see it through his results, which makes me suspicious of some incredible statistical hiccup. But then again, 25,000 hands is a large sample AND that $2,000 losing streak of his is included within it.

Personally, I think that what may be going on here is that my buddy is extremely adept at parting weak and irrational players with their money. For example, although he plays many tables at once he still can keep tabs on the status of players. I watch him make something like the following play all the time:

everyone folds and Idiot calls as dealer.
SB folds
Hero checks BB w/ (K 7).

flop: (A 7 4)
Hero checks
Idiot bets $6
Hero all-in
Idiot calls $130 with (7 5)

I will then ask my friend, "How the hell did you know you were good and how the hell did you know he would call??", because, obviously, it looked like he made a very dangerous and stupid play. He will inevitably respond with something like "I knew he was pissed off at me from 2 hands ago because I had AK to his KQ with a K on board. Because of this I knew he didn't have an ace because he would have raised with it preflop, so I moved all in with that ridiculous bet because A- I knew I was winning and B- I thought he would call with a 7 or even a 4 because my play looked like a bluff and he was very frustrated and angry at me from the hand before."

I am then left sitting there, incredulous. I mean, how can often can you get something like that work? How often will it backfire horribly?! I'll watch him 10 hands later and I'll see him put down QQ preflop to the same Idiot, only for someone else to call and the Idiot to show AA.

The thing is that he doesn't do nearly as well against players that know what they are doing. Sure he still wins, but he doesn't slaughter the game or flat out embarass people or even do as well I as I do.

What do you guys think? Is he just on an epic run of cards, or is he a genius at parting a fool from his money?

[Sponger15SB]

$100/hr is very possible.

[bdk3clash]

Can we define what stakes we're talking about? Also, at least in limit 25,000 hands isn't really enough to accurately gauge winrate. I've definitely had huge differences in winrate from one 25,000 hand chunk to another without corresponding gains or declines in skill.

[XChamp]

$1-$2 w/ $100 max buy-in

[fsuplayer]

what stakes are we talking about here?

how many tables?

what site?

btw 25k hands is not a large sample size by any means.

[bdk3clash]

How many tables is he playing? How many hands per hour do these tables average?

[augie00]

I'm not sure what you want here; an analysis of your friend's foolish play or his lucky run of 25,000 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
everyone folds and Idiot calls as dealer.
SB folds
Hero checks BB w/ (K 7).

flop: (A 7 4)
Hero checks
Idiot bets $6
Hero all-in
Idiot calls $130 with (7 5)


[/ QUOTE ]

If a play like this is standard for your friend, it would appear that he has been on a lucky run of cards for the last 25k hands. 25,000 is not all that large of a sample size and certainly doesn't indicate the "long run."

Assuming you play 5 tables of .50/1 NLHE, I think it's only borderline unreasonable to win $100/hr while you're running well. However, with your example provided, it would seem that your friend has just been getting lucky through reckless play and "gambling it up."

Check-raising for $136 to win a $10 pot with 2nd pair is never a good play, no matter how good he thinks his "read" is.

[XChamp]

He gets in about 300 hands/hr. I agree with what some of you are saying and I understand the easy dismissal, but come one he's been doing this for much more than 25k hands. He's up almost $100k for the year!

[Vollycat]

I would agree with most of the posts so far saying that your friend is on a great run of cards. However I think what your friend may be very good at is table selection-and if the example you gave of poker play is normal, I think he must be a much better 'table selector' then poker player.

[XChamp]

Well I think that example may have skewed everyone's view of him too much. Yes he does things like that but it's only against players that he has watched for a while. he wont pull that against any reasonable player. He is a very solid player in most situations but obviously has the ability to dramatically change gears if needed and plays every hand differently depending on the man. He is also very good at inducing bluffs.