SB woes when spotting a tell

[onegymrat]

Nine-handed 15/30 live game. Folded to a MP who limps. He is a decent player. UTG points out immediately that he could see that MP wanted to raise, but changed his mind, and glad he mucked. I actually didn't spot it and can't take the credit. Let's assume UTG's statement is credible. Folded to me in the SB and I have A9o with one chip to complete. BB is a loose player. What do you do? With which hands would most players open-limp instead of raise at the last minute?

I completed and BB checked. Three to the flop.

FLOP: A 7 5 r

I go for the check-raise and will fold to a 3-bet. But it gets checked around.

TURN: rag

I bet, BB folds, MP raises...

Am I beat here?

[bryan4967]

Probably not but I smell a set. Did MP turn over 77?

[tonysoldier]

At first glance it seems as though you are beat. I would expect to be shown AA here a fair amount of the time. That would certainly be in line with the hesitation and limp. 77 is also a strong possibility. But, on the other hand, if your opponent is an expert or particularly tricky player, this move, which screams of strength could be a bluff, with a hand like qjs. I think I muck this on the turn most of the time, but if the opponent meets certain conditions I call and check-call the river.

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]
At first glance it seems as though you are beat. I would expect to be shown AA here a fair amount of the time. That would certainly be in line with the hesitation and limp. 77 is also a strong possibility. But, on the other hand, if your opponent is an expert or particularly tricky player, this move, which screams of strength could be a bluff, with a hand like qjs. I think I muck this on the turn most of the time, but if the opponent meets certain conditions I call and check-call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]I was really lost on this one, although I think I "overthought" the whole hand. I hadn't played with villain too long, but he played tight and showed down good hands so far. So I had to put him as a minimum of a decent player. His limp in MP was suspect, but I didn't put him on AA or KK. Too late in position to fool around like that imo.

To be honest, you both thought about 77, and I didn't. That shows that I was looking at the ace too long. When he checked the flop, a smaller pp or KQ came to mind, but when he raised, the possibility of AK-AJ popped up.

[haakee]

Limp preflop, check-raise flop is fine. Without more specific opponent information, I'm calling down when I get raised on the turn here. A decent player may be smart enough to raise KJ here to blow you off whatever pair you may have.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
I go for the check-raise and will fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's decent and could be putting you to the test, thinking the same thing. I'd call down.

BTW, because you thought he was going to raise pf and changed his mind, I'd lead the flop. I think going for the c/r is good if there were more players in. Here I'd lead.

If he raises the flop, I'd probably peel and ch/fold the turn UI. If I wasn't sure about him or wanted to mess with him and see how strong he is, lead out again. That will have him wondering and chances are he'd just call. If he raises again, you know you're beat.