77, raising PF

[shant]

I'd bet diamonds into the TAG PFR, is that wrong? As I see it I'll either get you to fold AQ or 88 or whatever, and I also trap the other dude inbetween and even if you raise that other guy is stuck padding the pot.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet diamonds into the TAG PFR, is that wrong? As I see it I'll either get you to fold AQ or 88 or whatever, and I also trap the other dude inbetween and even if you raise that other guy is stuck padding the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought too -- after I folded. I started thinking TAG would c/r a K and bet diamonds. That made me question my fold, so I posted this. But then I don't have enough of a read on MP to know what his call means. He could be a calling station with nothing; he could be slowplaying a 6, or he could have a weak K. Showdown just seemed like a long way away and my hand has little chance to improve if I'm behind.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I started thinking TAG would c/r a K and bet diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might checkraise a king, but I wonder if that's really best. Hand protection isn't really a huge issue, on this flop.

[Nick C]

I have a question. What do we do if MP2 folds to the flop bet?

I think the decision becomes more difficult then.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. What do we do if MP2 folds to the flop bet?

I think the decision becomes more difficult then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I raise, bet the turn, and take a free showdown. If I'm 3-bet or checkraised on the turn, I don't even see the river.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. What do we do if MP2 folds to the flop bet?

I think the decision becomes more difficult then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I raise, bet the turn, and take a free showdown. If I'm 3-bet or checkraised on the turn, I don't even see the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this seems like a reasonable line.

I think we're an underdog on the flop to BB's range, though. I'm not sure, but that's what I suspect. If BB needed at least a flush draw to lead the flop, we're probably an underdog, as many flush draws (the ones with two overcards to our 7's) are an approimate coinflip versus us, with two cards to come, whereas we're way behind any king or 6.

Still, if BB will sometimes take a stab with a hand like AT, figuring the flop probably missed you and MP2 also, then that changes the situation, and getting him out of the pot as soon as possible would be a good thing.

Anyway, part of the difficulty I'm having here is that I don't have a good sense of what a 15/8 player is calling with preflop in the BB at 5/10. I can't put him on a preflop range with much confidence, and I don't really know how to interpret the flop lead either.

But the more he's worried (preflop) about domination with so-so kings, and the more he's willing to play suited, semi-connected hands in a 3-way pot, the greater the chances are that he's betting a draw.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we're an underdog on the flop to BB's range, though. I'm not sure, but that's what I suspect. If BB needed at least a flush draw to lead the flop, we're probably an underdog, as many flush draws (the ones with two overcards to our 7's) are an approimate coinflip versus us, with two cards to come, whereas we're way behind any king or 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. This is the crux of the matter for me. We are either massively behind with two outs, or an approximate coinflip. Particularly with the middleman in there calling with who knows what (pocket 8s for all we know), this is an easy fold for me. The pot is still relatively small, I've got 2 small bets invested. Meh. I wait for a better spot.

[bryan4967]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is still relatively small, I've got 2 small bets invested. Meh. I wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]