|
|
#1
09-19-2005, 08:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
SB is LAG: VPIP 49, PFR 19, Postflop Aggr: 3.7, Cold-call PF %: 3.6, Check/Raise %: 0.62. What do you do here?
$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo Hero ( $388 ), CO ( $175.97 ), BB ( $635.15 ), UTG+2 ( $774.82 ), MP1 ( $400 ), SB ( $410.20 ), BUT ( $106.15 ), UTG ( $400 ), OUT ( $248.32 ), UTG+1 ( $400 ) OUT is sitting out. Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ++--++ SB posts $2. BB posts $4. UTG posts $4. UTG+1 posts $4. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero raises $22, CO calls $22, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls $20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font> <font color="blue">Flop</font>: (75.00) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB checks. Hero bets $75. CO folds. SB raises $300. Hero ??? 
|
|
#2
09-19-2005, 10:17 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
Great post--very interesting hand, although it looked routine initially. My first impulse was that this was an obvious fold but I monkeyed around in 2dimes and found that against most top two, you easily have correct odds to call. Even against a pretty bad QT, you are on the edge of having a call here:
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs Td 3h cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV Ad 3d Qh Jh 145 145 435 240 0 0 0 0.323 Ac Jc Qd Th 435 435 145 240 0 0 0 0.677 Against a wrap, you are often ahead since you have the AJ to kill the K outs. The only hand that has you in bad shape is a set, and even then only top set has you totally screwed. Hell, I'm actually thinking you might call here given the 2:1 odds and the fact that he's a LAG. Has he been playing real stupid/LAGgy in this session? Also, what's his winrate & # of hands that you've seen him in? That would probably be the deciding factor if I had long enough to think all this over before I acted.
|
|
#3
09-19-2005, 10:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
Yeah, I think the two backdoor flush draws and gutshot make it more interesting than it might first seem. I only had 400 hands of stats on him during which time he lost $1.5k. There weren't any hands that I remembered at the time I needed to make the decision (I was playing four tables and dealing with a Swedish girl that is trying to make plans for us to spend the rest of our lives together.)
|
|
#4
09-20-2005, 05:16 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
that type of player is raising the board, not his hand.
Most preflop raisers have AA,A2/A3 and can't call a big raise. Given his range there and HeWhoCannotFold's post, i call very often. -g
|
|
#5
09-20-2005, 09:17 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
I agree with the other posters. Maybe he has AA, but I suspect with the kind of stats you describe he puts you on A2xx and he figures to pot the flop unless two or more low cards come. I would call.
|
|
#6
09-20-2005, 11:08 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
I agree somewhat with you gergery, although I think you can get into trouble never giving your opponent credit. If I have seen this guy do this before (check raise a preflop raiser when no low draw flopped), then I flat call here, but I might reraise out of position. Since you describe your opponent as laggy, I would probably call and see what happens on the turn.
|
|
#7
09-20-2005, 12:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
If you call the turn, you will have $66 left and the pot will be $645. There is no turn card that could make me fold getting better than 10:1. If you like calling this turn, then potting the flop was a clear error – there is no possible hand you can hold where pot-call is a good line to take. I agree it is a high variance play, and I would not always recommend jamming there, but as AirHumpy showed, your opponent only needs to be betting a wrap or bluffing a relatively small % of the time for this to be a profitable play. And this opponent as described could easily be doing that. It’s not about whether you give him credit – its about whether his weighted range of hands and the pot odds make your push EV+ or not. Welcome to the o8 forum btw, I liked your post in the beginners forum the other day. --greg
|
|
#8
09-20-2005, 01:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG
My fault, I didn't pay enough attention fo stack size. I agree, if you play on you should go ahead and move in. If you call you are totally pot committed and will have to call any later bet for $66 more.
|
|
#10
09-20-2005, 11:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Results
This was a really close one for me, and I felt like I might be tilting when I called.
... UTG: aces smases Hero is all-In $291 SB calls $66. <font color="blue">Turn</font>: (807.00) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">River</font>: (807.00) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB shows 2d, Ks, Qd, 3c two pairs, queens and threes. Hero shows Ad, Jh, Qh, 3d two pairs, aces and queens. Hero wins $807 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and queens. There was no qualifying low hand. My pot equity: Flop: 3h, Td, Qs , Turn: Ah , River: 9c ------------------------------------- PF ---- Flop --- Turn SB -------------- 2d, Ks, Qd, 3c --- 0.301 -- 0.238 -- 0.075 Hero ------------ Ad, Jh, Qh, 3d --- 0.699 -- 0.762 -- 0.925
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
