J8s from the button

[xLukex]

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Ok, so how about this one? Would you check or bet the flop? 9 outs for the flush, Ks and Js are probably not good because of the ace. 5-handed. What would you do?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="blue">Hero...</font>

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It is an unraised pot. I *might* check and hope UTG bets. If so, call and hope you hit it on the turn. I just don't understand how you could bet out here when you're only going to hit your hand 35% of the time. You're certainly not going to get everyone to fold.

Now you can argue that this would be correct if you had AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and a jack was the highest card.

I am a dumb jerk. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[xLukex]

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I alternate between betting and checking (with the hope of check-raising if the situation is right) in this spot, with much depending upon how the table is behaving as a whole.

If I had to choose the scenario I would like to occur, it would be: Hero checks, UTG bets, 3 calls, Hero check-raises, 4 calls. Assuming you see a showdown, your pot equity is ~35%, yet you're putting in only 20% in the scenario I just mentioned, and you trapped the field for an extra bet. So, what I like to do is check and see what materializes. If, after a bet from behind me, I think I can get in with greater than 35% equity, I will check-raise. If not, I call if the pot odds are correct.

However, if the table is such that it will often be checked through or it will be bet without callers, then I will simply bet in order to have some fold equity and also to perhaps disguise my hand from those who think I'm representing a pair of Kings or Jacks and are drawing to a lower flush.

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If hero has 35% of the pot equity in this hand, anyone with an ace automatically has more than 35%. Does that make sense? Hero cannot be the favorite to win the hand with a flush draw if someone has a pair of aces. 65% of the time he will not hit a flush and he will have bet for nothing.

Also, if you bet on the flop and get 3 callers, what is your plan for the turn? Bet again into a group of hands that beat you?

[TheKentock]

So, in this scenario several things have changed. Firstly, we are on the flop, where people love to find reasons to call. We also have a BDSD and a small, but nonzero, chance that hitting a K or J will give us the best hand. Finally, only one person has checked, as opposed to the whole field checking in the original hand. This leads me to betting here. As someone has already said, our showdown equity is about 33%, and it is much more likely that 3 people will call here, making it decidedly +EV

[TheKentock]

Not to be a jerk, but is we win this hand 35% of the time, and we are contributing &lt;35% of the money on the flop, we are making a good decision in terms of EV. I think this was covered pretty well in SSHE as well.

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to be a jerk, but is we win this hand 35% of the time, and we are contributing &lt;35% of the money on the flop, we are making a good decision in terms of EV. I think this was covered pretty well in SSHE as well.

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Ok, so maybe it IS +EV. Errgghhh I still think we're so beat and I hate it.

I get this from playing SH.

[xLukex]

Anyways, if you get 2 callers and it doesn't hit on the turn, it is now correct to check/call now, right?

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I alternate between betting and checking (with the hope of check-raising if the situation is right) in this spot, with much depending upon how the table is behaving as a whole.

If I had to choose the scenario I would like to occur, it would be: Hero checks, UTG bets, 3 calls, Hero check-raises, 4 calls. Assuming you see a showdown, your pot equity is ~35%, yet you're putting in only 20% in the scenario I just mentioned, and you trapped the field for an extra bet. So, what I like to do is check and see what materializes. If, after a bet from behind me, I think I can get in with greater than 35% equity, I will check-raise. If not, I call if the pot odds are correct.

However, if the table is such that it will often be checked through or it will be bet without callers, then I will simply bet in order to have some fold equity and also to perhaps disguise my hand from those who think I'm representing a pair of Kings or Jacks and are drawing to a lower flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero has 35% of the pot equity in this hand, anyone with an ace automatically has more than 35%. Does that make sense? Hero cannot be the favorite to win the hand with a flush draw if someone has a pair of aces. 65% of the time he will not hit a flush and he will have bet for nothing.

Also, if you bet on the flop and get 3 callers, what is your plan for the turn? Bet again into a group of hands that beat you?

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Hero is not the favorite to win. I am estimating he will hit his flush and win 35% of the time.

If Hero puts in less than 35% of the money on this betting round (or, for that matter, if he puts in less than 35% of the money for the rest of the hand from this point forward), then the betting has been +EV for Hero.

The analysis on the turn would be the same, but taking into account that Hero's equity will be less since he is now drawing to only one card.

[TheKentock]

Yes

[xLukex]

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[ QUOTE ]
I alternate between betting and checking (with the hope of check-raising if the situation is right) in this spot, with much depending upon how the table is behaving as a whole.

If I had to choose the scenario I would like to occur, it would be: Hero checks, UTG bets, 3 calls, Hero check-raises, 4 calls. Assuming you see a showdown, your pot equity is ~35%, yet you're putting in only 20% in the scenario I just mentioned, and you trapped the field for an extra bet. So, what I like to do is check and see what materializes. If, after a bet from behind me, I think I can get in with greater than 35% equity, I will check-raise. If not, I call if the pot odds are correct.

However, if the table is such that it will often be checked through or it will be bet without callers, then I will simply bet in order to have some fold equity and also to perhaps disguise my hand from those who think I'm representing a pair of Kings or Jacks and are drawing to a lower flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero has 35% of the pot equity in this hand, anyone with an ace automatically has more than 35%. Does that make sense? Hero cannot be the favorite to win the hand with a flush draw if someone has a pair of aces. 65% of the time he will not hit a flush and he will have bet for nothing.

Also, if you bet on the flop and get 3 callers, what is your plan for the turn? Bet again into a group of hands that beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is not the favorite to win. I am estimating he will hit his flush and win 35% of the time.

If Hero puts in less than 35% of the money on this betting round (or, for that matter, if he puts in less than 35% of the money for the rest of the hand from this point forward), then the betting has been +EV for Hero.

The analysis on the turn would be the same, but taking into account that Hero's equity will be less since he is now drawing to only one card.

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Yeah, I completely misinterpreted pot equity I think.

I was saying hero is not the favorite, so he must not have pot equity, which is obviously wrong.

In my defense, I play shorthanded. So all I do is bet and check-raise, apparently.

The flop call made me puke.
The turn bet made me puke on my puke.

And this from Miles made me cry.
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so anyway, yeah that turn bet left the taste of warm smegma in my mouth.

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