J8s from the button

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello Jay.

I dont think that your flop call was correct. Thats because although you thought that the very loose MP player may have given you implied odds, there was also another caller to consider. You just werent receiving good enough odds to call for your gut-shot in this instance IMHO.

Also, I disagree with the turn bet. You are right that if all the remaining players called, that you would have been receiving sufficient odds to improve to probably the best hand.

However, I think that it was unlikely that all 4 of your remaining opponents would call your bet. Also, it was unlikely that your bet would fold all of those players either.

That meant that it was unlikely that you would get the value which you were hoping for from your bet, and I think thats why checking and taking the free card on the turn would have been better.

By the way, I think that you posted an interesting hand for analysis. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I was hoping it would be, because I think my play was very arguable both ways [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] To be perfectly honest, I lean towards the "bad" argument, but I'm trying to play devil's advocate. I'm trying to get a handle on marginal hands like this one.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I thought we generally bet when we have an equity edge with the assumption that we will be called? If we assume people are folding when we bet, then we can't really discuss equity edges as precisely as we do. If we take people's folds into account, it becomes a much more difficult problem deciding when to value bet draws and exploit equity edges. Let me know if I've been thinking about this all wrong, because it could easily be something that's been costing me money.

[TheKentock]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I thought we generally bet when we have an equity edge with the assumption that we will be called? If we assume people are folding when we bet, then we can't really discuss equity edges as precisely as we do. If we take people's folds into account, it becomes a much more difficult problem deciding when to value bet draws and exploit equity edges. Let me know if I've been thinking about this all wrong, because it could easily be something that's been costing me money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's take an example. You are in your exact same position, with 12 outs on the turn. You are first to act, and you check. The player to your immediate left bets, and he is called by 4 players. Since these people have already committed one bet to this street, it is very likely that they will all call one more bet. So you check/raise.

This is an example where equity is more clearly defined. But the concepts can be applied to many situations. I would say that when 4 people check to you on the turn, very few of them plan on calling a bet, and you can assume that your equity scenario is not nearly as rosy.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I thought we generally bet when we have an equity edge with the assumption that we will be called? If we assume people are folding when we bet, then we can't really discuss equity edges as precisely as we do. If we take people's folds into account, it becomes a much more difficult problem deciding when to value bet draws and exploit equity edges. Let me know if I've been thinking about this all wrong, because it could easily be something that's been costing me money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's take an example. You are in your exact same position, with 12 outs on the turn. You are first to act, and you check. The player to your immediate left bets, and he is called by 4 players. Since these people have already committed one bet to this street, it is very likely that they will all call one more bet. So you check/raise.

This is an example where equity is more clearly defined. But the concepts can be applied to many situations. I would say that when 4 people check to you on the turn, very few of them plan on calling a bet, and you can assume that your equity scenario is not nearly as rosy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even after they all called two bets on the flop? That seems to me that they're interested in the hand.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I thought we generally bet when we have an equity edge with the assumption that we will be called? If we assume people are folding when we bet, then we can't really discuss equity edges as precisely as we do. If we take people's folds into account, it becomes a much more difficult problem deciding when to value bet draws and exploit equity edges.

[/ QUOTE ]
does it make any sense to assume that everyone will always call your bet? no one ever raises or folds?

this is the reason so many players want to bet flush draws out of position 3 or 4 way on the flop, and it's wrong. your equity is a function of the # of callers, not the # of players in the pot with you (although these two numbers are obviously related).

so anyway, yeah that turn bet left the taste of warm smegma in my mouth.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I thought we generally bet when we have an equity edge with the assumption that we will be called? If we assume people are folding when we bet, then we can't really discuss equity edges as precisely as we do. If we take people's folds into account, it becomes a much more difficult problem deciding when to value bet draws and exploit equity edges.

[/ QUOTE ]
does it make any sense to assume that everyone will always call your bet? no one ever raises or folds?

this is the reason so many players want to bet flush draws out of position 3 or 4 way on the flop, and it's wrong. your equity is a function of the # of callers, not the # of players in the pot with you (although these two numbers are obviously related).

so anyway, yeah that turn bet left the taste of warm smegma in my mouth.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely a leak of mine. I've been overplaying a lot of draws and miscalculating equity. Thanks a lot, I have something to work on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TheKentock]

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Even after they all called two bets on the flop? That seems to me that they're interested in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, even after they called 2 on the flop. A lot of low-limit fish will call bets on the flop but gladly release their unimproved hands on the turn. Partly because the bet size increases, partly because there is only 1 more card to improve their hand. For whatever reason, this has been the case in my experience.

Besides, you only have 26% equity here, IGNORING the times when you hit your card and are beaten by a higher straight or flush. You need 3 callers here every time in order for this to be +EV. I honestly don't see this happening.

[AlmightyJay]

Ok, so how about this one? Would you check or bet the flop? 9 outs for the flush, Ks and Js are probably not good because of the ace. 5-handed. What would you do?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="blue">Hero...</font>

[Fantam]

This is just a very general reply to your thoughts about betting for value on either the flop or turn.

I think that you will usually have more success betting your strong draws for value on the flop, when other players are also hoping to draw to better hands.

On the turn, as other posters have pointed out, it is more expensive for other players to continue drawing and probably less likely that your value bets for draws will succeed.

A turn bet with a very strong drawing hand (such as a flush draw and a pair) is probably better as a semi-bluff on the turn against only 1 or 2 opponents, hoping to get them to fold, with a chance of improving to the best hand if they dont.

[Fantam]

You would definitely bet this flop without question.

You have the nut flush draw, with chances of 2:1 against of making it by the river. You have 4 other opponents who could easily call on this A high flop.

This is clearly a value bet. You only need 3 opponents to call your flop bet for it to be for value.

I alternate between betting and checking (with the hope of check-raising if the situation is right) in this spot, with much depending upon how the table is behaving as a whole.

If I had to choose the scenario I would like to occur, it would be: Hero checks, UTG bets, 3 calls, Hero check-raises, 4 calls. Assuming you see a showdown, your pot equity is ~35%, yet you're putting in only 20% in the scenario I just mentioned, and you trapped the field for an extra bet. So, what I like to do is check and see what materializes. If, after a bet from behind me, I think I can get in by contributing less than 35% of the betting on the current betting round, then I will check-raise. If not, I call if the pot odds are correct.

However, if the table is such that it will often be checked through or it will be bet without callers, then I will simply bet in order to have some fold equity and also to perhaps disguise my hand from those who think I'm representing a pair of Kings or Jacks and are drawing to a lower flush.