J8s from the button

[AlmightyJay]

Second hand on the table. MP1 is VERY loose and is the main reason I'm in this hand. I know preflop is extremely marginal but I have a definite edge over him and will get paid off huge if I hit a hand. Generally I would fold this here with only two limpers.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

I'm getting 5:1 on my call with a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. Pair cards are probably no good. Also I'm sure to get at least another three bets out of MP1 if I hit on the turn. I didn't expect UTG to 3-bet. Is this an insta-fold, or is my call okay?

Turn: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds, CO folds.

Checked to me, 8BB pot, 5-handed, I have 12 outs. Easy value bet, right?

River: (10.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero folds.

I missed, no way I can overcall with J-high.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Bad? Terrible? Good? Some of both?

[xLukex]

Your call on the flop is bad. I hate it!

Calculate your outs: 4 to the 10. 1 to the backdoor draw. That makes 5 I suppose, since you already said your pair outs are no good. You're getting what 5:1? This is a 9:1 call or so isn't it? You're not getting the odds to call here. Not even close!

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Your call on the flop is bad. I hate it!

Calculate your outs: 4 to the 10. 1 to the backdoor draw. That makes 5 I suppose, since you already said your pair outs are no good. You're getting what 5:1? This is a 9:1 call or so isn't it? You're not getting the odds to call here. Not even close!

[/ QUOTE ]

8.5:1 or so for five outs, if I only see one more card. I'm getting 5.5:1 immediate odds. I expect to get at the least two more bets from MP1 if I hit on the turn, possibly three or even four (he had been aggressive and his turn check was extremely surprising). Not to even mention the fact that we will be at least three handed on the turn. I think implied odds just barely make this an okay call.

I don't deny that it's marginal at best and possibly downright bad, but I don't think it's as terrible as you say.

[TheKentock]

This flop call is definitely not correct, seeing as how your 4 straight outs and 1.5 BDFD outs require at least 7.5:1 to call here. Bad flop decision.

And on the turn, they gave you a chance to hit your flush for free. check behind and thank them for a very fortunate free card.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
And on the turn, they gave you a chance to hit your flush for free. check behind and thank them for a very fortunate free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the turn bet is the only thing induspitably right in this hand. I have 4 opponents. With 12 outs, that gives me an equity edge that I have to exploit. This bet is very +EV, it seems to me.

I dont like you position to call the 3bet on the flop.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like you position to call the 3bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's only two bets. If it was three this would be the easiest fold ever.

[TheKentock]

Well, if you assume that all 4 opponents will call your bet, then you have an undisputable equity edge. In my experience, however, the fact that 4 opponents checked through the turn means that very few of them are committed to the hand at this point. I see very few situations where 3 people are going to call your bet here, which is the number that you need to call in order for your bet to be correct. More likely 2 or even 1 person will call and you will have made an unprofitable bet.

So I do not at all think that this is a good bet, and certainly not the best part of the hand. In fact, the best part of the hand is when you finally fold your hand on the river.

Pre-flop: As you say, it's marginal. But, I don't think it's terrible. With 3 limpers that include a very loose opponent who will pay you off if you hit, and with position, you may have just enough to call from the CO with J8s.

Flop: My first reaction was that your overcall was not good at all. I still think it's marginal. Assume you have 5.5 outs (straight outs could be tainted, though, as could BDFD), giving you 7.7-1 on your draw where immediate pot odds are 5.25-1. Maybe you're right that you will make up the difference with implied odds if you hit. I'm not super confident that's true. And redraws are available against you, which means you really have less than 5.5 outs.

Turn: I don't mind the bet because at ~3-1 you have 33% pot equity, and are likely to get at least a couple of callers.

River: I agree. Nice fold.

[Fantam]

Hello Jay.

I dont think that your flop call was correct. Thats because although you thought that the very loose MP player may have given you implied odds, there was also another caller to consider. You just werent receiving good enough odds to call for your gut-shot in this instance IMHO.

Also, I disagree with the turn bet. You are right that if all the remaining players called, that you would have been receiving sufficient odds to improve to probably the best hand.

However, I think that it was unlikely that all 4 of your remaining opponents would call your bet. Also, it was unlikely that your bet would fold all of those players either.

That meant that it was unlikely that you would get the value which you were hoping for from your bet, and I think thats why checking and taking the free card on the turn would have been better.

By the way, I think that you posted an interesting hand for analysis. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]