Stars 150 Hand Review and Line Check

BPA234 · #1 10-27-2005, 07:16 AM

Here are two hands from Monday's Stars 150 that I continue to think about. Hand #1 villain is Sirio11 who could be raising preflop with a very wide range of hands.

Hand #2 Sirio11 again raises preflop. But, sb pushes allin. I have no read on sb. ACTION?

Both cases are early final table hands.

Bison is down, sorry for raw histories.

PokerStars Game #2887601435: Tournament #14115926, Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI
(3000/6000) - 2005/10/25 - 01:18:30 (ET)
Table '14115926 30' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: yeventry (54138 in chips)
Seat 2: JAQK (88582 in chips)
Seat 3: TC_Clueless (121925 in chips)
Seat 4: sirio11 (78007 in chips)
Seat 5: BPA234 (47522 in chips)
Seat 6: tmacnatedogg (67734 in chips)
Seat 7: rudie_1068 (126654 in chips)
Seat 9: njm800 (67938 in chips)
yeventry: posts the ante 300
JAQK: posts the ante 300
TC_Clueless: posts the ante 300
sirio11: posts the ante 300
BPA234: posts the ante 300
tmacnatedogg: posts the ante 300
rudie_1068: posts the ante 300
njm800: posts the ante 300
yeventry: posts small blind 3000
JAQK: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BPA234 [Jd Ac]
TC_Clueless: folds
sirio11: raises 12000 to 18000
BPA234: calls 18000
tmacnatedogg: folds
rudie_1068: folds
njm800: folds
yeventry: folds
JAQK: folds
*** FLOP *** [4d 3d 2s]
sirio11: bets 59707 and is all-in
BPA234: folds

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 47400 | Rake 0
Board [4d 3d 2s]
Seat 1: yeventry (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: JAQK (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: TC_Clueless folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: sirio11 collected (47400)
Seat 5: BPA234 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: tmacnatedogg folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: rudie_1068 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: njm800 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

*********** # 326 **************
PokerStars Game #2887754854: Tournament #14115926, Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII
(4000/8000) - 2005/10/25 - 01:42:24 (ET)
Table '14115926 30' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: yeventry (49276 in chips)
Seat 2: JAQK (37088 in chips)
Seat 3: TC_Clueless (139825 in chips)
Seat 4: sirio11 (153407 in chips)
Seat 5: BPA234 (108312 in chips)
Seat 7: rudie_1068 (79054 in chips)
Seat 9: njm800 (85538 in chips)
yeventry: posts the ante 400
JAQK: posts the ante 400
TC_Clueless: posts the ante 400
sirio11: posts the ante 400
BPA234: posts the ante 400
rudie_1068: posts the ante 400
njm800: posts the ante 400
JAQK: posts small blind 4000
TC_Clueless: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BPA234 [8c 8h]
sirio11: raises 12000 to 20000
BPA234: calls 20000
rudie_1068: folds
njm800: folds
yeventry: folds
JAQK: folds
TC_Clueless: raises 119425 to 139425 and is all-in

HERO?

Exitonly · #2 10-27-2005, 07:22 AM

Hero should have folded to both raises PF.

ansky451 · #3 10-27-2005, 07:25 AM

Hand one is really, really bad. You have 8 big blinds, and you are calling off 3/8ths of your stack preflop with a marginal hand. You have to push or fold preflop. Then on the flop, you are getting better than 2-1 here, I can't imagine folding this.. I'd hope he had TT and try to spike my 10 outer.

Hand 2 you have to give us some reads. FWIW TC_Clueless is Rob Boyd I think, Dutch Boyds brother. If he has been playing very aggro this looks like a squeeze, and you can call it. You gotta have some sort of read at a final table.

BPA234 · #4 10-27-2005, 07:50 AM

Hand 1, I agree I am holding a marginal hand. Definitely, easy fold/push. Normally, I would fold or push this immediately. But, I had been card dead, folding alot and getting anxious.

Instead, I instacalled and thought "christ, why did I do that? AS the flop lands, I plan to push to his check...

Hand2, is still early final table. I have no read on TC. Since Sirio raises UTG and I smooth call, I feel I have to respect that the allin by TC has me beat. Later, I get a read on TC that might have influenced my play.

betgo · #5 10-27-2005, 09:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Instead, I instacalled and thought "christ, why did I do that? AS the flop lands, I plan to push to his check...

[/ QUOTE ]

You had T30K left and there was T48K in the pot. Why do you think villain would check? You are getting 2.6-1 pot odds, putting 28% of the pot. You have to call. You are 37% against TT, 21% against AK, and 78% against KQ. Once you flat call, you have to put the money in on the flop, particularly this flop.

If you think villain is making loose raises, I would probably push preflop. You don't have enough chips to make villain fold to a reraise, so calling is pretty much the same as pushing, unless you are stupid enough to fold on the flop.

BPA234 · #6 10-27-2005, 10:35 AM

I agree with your math and your statements. Couple minor exceptions, Yes, calling pre-flop was a mistake. That is why I continue to think about this hand. Also, exactly why I posted the hand. I am interested in how others would deal with this hand after making the same mistake.

The other hand where I have 88 is one that I am comfortable with my play. I don't believe I made a mistake there. But, I wonder how others would react.

In the AJ hand, having made my mistake preflop, I am thinking I can play a flop a variety of ways. If he checks I can push, or if I pair either of my cards I can commit to the hand and play for value. Prior to his push, I have some hope that I may be able to win the on the flop.

Folding on the flop is another place where I do not believe I made a mistake. Further, based on my read of Sirio, I believe I am behind every possible holding that he may have. I fold here believing that I can get my remaining chips in with either better cards or position.

Mathematically, relative to pot size at time of flop, this may not be entirely supportable. But, relative to my belief that I can play short-stacked at a final table (heavy 1/200sng experience) well and that I can find cards or opportunities that will give me a chance to stack-up, I fold (stupidity aside lol).

Thanks for your response.

Melchiades · #7 10-27-2005, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I can get my remaining chips in with either better cards or position.

[/ QUOTE ]
With this stack size, position doesn't really help you, does it? As this hand showed.

schwza · #8 10-27-2005, 10:59 AM

hand 1: agree with everyone: push or fold. if sirio's range here is really wide, i think pushing is ok. he would have to be very very aggro for me not to fold though.

on the flop, folding is horrible. how can you believe both

[ QUOTE ]
Further, based on my read of Sirio, I believe I am behind every possible holding that he may have.

[/ QUOTE ]

and

[ QUOTE ]
Hand #1 villain is Sirio11 who could be raising preflop with a very wide range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you think he does after raising with A8 and getting that flop? check/folding? check/calling? he's probably pushing. same for JT, K8, and a ton of other hands you're ahead or way ahead of. the only hands that have you in real bad shape are AA, sets, and straights. AQ+ you have 3 scoop and 4 chop outs, plus backdoor flush. something like 77 and you have 10 outs + flush.

there is 47.4k in the pot, and you only have to call 29k more. by strict chipEV, you only need to win ~27%. by cashEV, it's probably something like 35% (but i'm just guessing on that conversion). i think you're around 50% to win.

schwza · #9 10-27-2005, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here believing that I can get my remaining chips in with either better cards or position.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. you probably will. but you'll be getting them in hoping to double up to ~60k instead of hoping to get up to ~105k.

schwza · #10 10-27-2005, 11:04 AM

hand 2 is still push or fold, imo. if sirio is still raising light, i push. once villain pushes, i'd fold. i think his range is AK / JJ+, maybe down to AQ / 99+ usually. i think it's pretty rare that this guy is trying to make a play with 55, A5s, etc.