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#21
10-25-2005, 08:24 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
Why do these threads always go off base and turn into the debate of the infinate bankroll running into infinate losses etc..
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#22
10-25-2005, 08:45 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
Why do these threads always go off base and turn into the debate of the infinate bankroll running into infinate losses etc.. [/ QUOTE ] Simply because some people cant accept the possibility of infinite losses. Doesnt matter how many times you spin the wheel. You cant turn a probability of hitting something to 100% by spinning the wheel enough number of times. The probability of hitting red will never be 100%.
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#24
10-25-2005, 09:20 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I did read that thread. I can't believe they went on so long with such nonsense. Look. Give me, the Infinite Martingaler, any goal for winnings. Say $500. What are my chances of winning $500 with this system? My chances are 100%. Halfway through that thread they started saying that infinite losing streaks are possible. They aren't. Here is a simple proof (credit to WhiteWolf). Please find the flaw in it. </font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr /> Assign x the value of 0.99999...: x = 0.9999... Multiply each side of the equation by 10: 10x = 9.9999... Factor out 9.9999... as 9 + 0.9999... 10x = 9 + 0.9999... Since x= 0.9999..., replace 0.9999... in the right hand side of the equation: 10x = 9 + x Subtract x from each side: 9x = 9 Divide each side by 9: x = 1 Since x equals both 1 and 0.9999..., 1 does indeed equal 0.9999.... [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I dont see any proof that 0,99999=1.00 here Its probably possible for some nerd to prove that 1+1=3 using the same obscure formula.
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#25
10-25-2005, 09:37 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
Wow, you are really really dense. Since when is 6th grade algebra an "obscure formula"?
Also, it is 0.9999...=1, not 0.99999=1. Don't change the question.
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#27
10-25-2005, 09:59 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
[ QUOTE ]
Look. Give me, the Infinite Martingaler, any goal for winnings. Say $500. What are my chances of winning $500 with this system? My chances are 100%. [/ QUOTE ] But how many spins will it take you to win that $500? If you need an infinite bankroll to guarantee your win, then you must need an infinite amount of time as well. Can you really say the chance of something happening is 100%, if it might not happen until an infinite time from now?
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#29
10-25-2005, 10:18 PM
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Re: How do you explain Martingale to someone who doesn\'t understand EV
[ QUOTE ]
For the third time, please refute the proof I posted. [/ QUOTE ] Your proof is correct, of course, it's not what I'm taking issue with. I don't argue that .999... = 1, and I think (although I'm not sure) that you are correct that the chance of an infinite string of losses is exactly 0%. What I'm trying to get at is this. The chance of hitting any finite number of losses is clearly non-zero. To get your odds of losing down to exactly 0%, you have to spin the wheel an infinite number of times. What does it mean to say that you have a 100% chance of making your $500, but it could take you an infinite amount of time to do it? I honestly don't know the answer to this question.
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