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  #11  
Old 09-06-2005, 06:39 PM
Fillamoore Fillamoore is offline
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Default Re: Another silly fold?

I really dont see how the middle to low suited connectors are included in the range of hands...what weak/tite player limps utg with a weak speculative hand? Not many i know of...some fairly loose players will even throw those away...i can see MAYBE 9T or JTs but still feel like limper has set of 77's, waiting to throw in a raise on 4th street. For 1 small bet though, theres no way i fold here. Even if you are drawing to running outs, its worth 1 more bet to see what utg does on turn after sb leads. If turn is a brick, sb leads and utg simply calls, you can call pretty easily as sb could be playing a weaker 9 and utg drawing. If sb checks and utg bets, you can fold, if sb bets and utg raises you can fold. Either way, its 14.5 to 1, not even counting the implied odds should you be drawing to live outs that connect. I call and see what happens on 4th street.
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  #12  
Old 09-06-2005, 09:28 PM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Is it that hard to actually put the why with the what?

[ QUOTE ]
UTG could have 10js, 98s, 78s, 67s

[/ QUOTE ]
No. She couldn't. She's weak/tight remember, none of these, with the possible exception of JTs are in her preflop range. There's no way she cold calls 2 more bets on the flop w/ JTs.

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She could also have 88, 10-10, which you have tons of outs against

[/ QUOTE ]

A definate posibility. I felt, however, if she had TT she would have raised the flop. 88 was a possibility that I considered, but honestly thought she was more likely to fold that hand when stuck between the two aggressors then she was to call with it.

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I don't see how someone going call, cold call, convinces you they have a set.

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Its a combination of things, and keep in mind she's not the only one in the hand. Her preflop standards remove many of the hands that she "might" play that way. Furthermore there's no way a weak/tight is colding calling the 2nd and 3rd bet with a gutshot, or with naked overs. There was no flush draw (I might have forgot to mention the board was rainbow).

Also, doesn't SB's lead, into a player he know will raise, look like a hand that wants action? I wasn't sure that UTG had a set, but I was pretty sure one of them did.

lf
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  #13  
Old 09-06-2005, 09:41 PM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Is it that hard to actually put the why with the what?

Thats what i'm talking about. Good old fashioned discussion.

[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop is standard for me, but there isnt much point in playing that way if you are going to fold to a little pressure on a pretty darn good flop for you.


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Anybody that knows me knows that I don't crumble under pressure, unless i'm pretty sure i'm drawing dead or close to it.

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SB could have a ton of stuff you beat including a worse 9

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I considered that. He had, however, earlier in the session shown an affinity for c/r hands that needed protection (obviously you can't know that). His bet reaked of strength. He's smart. He know's i'm going to bet if checked to and he knows i'm going to raise if he bets. yet he bets anyway, instead of opting to c/r. that says to me that his hand is not, in his opinion, in need of protecting. He had also cold called w/ AA-QQ preflop earlier in the game, and then went bonkers preflop. Initially I thought he was the one with the set.

[ QUOTE ]
could have any number of pair and draw hands as well as no pair hands like J10s. 88,66, 89, 78

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She's weak/tight. They don't play 89s and 78s UTG. She might have 88 or 66, and that was the other option to overs when she just called the first bet. I don't know too many weak/tights though that voluntarily call 2 cold with and underpair and a gutshot when caught in the middle of 2 aggressive players who have said they like the flop.

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If you want to play it safe, call the 3 bet. Then if limper has the monster you are afraid of she will raise SBs lead on the turn and you can muck. Since she wont put a play on you this is probably a safe way to go.

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This is a good point. I firmly believed I was up against a set or a straight in somebody's hand, or both, and didn't think that even if I turned some outs i'd be getting the right price to draw. Its not like the turn is going to go for one bet, if I'm right about my hand read.

thoughts?

lf
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  #14  
Old 09-06-2005, 09:43 PM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Another silly fold?

Unfortunately only the UTG was known to me, i'd never seen the SB before. He had figured out I was aggresive by the time this hand came up, but i'd been showing nothing but strong hands. Some thin value bets, but nothing weak/crazy.

thanks for the position compliment, BTW, I appreciate it. I hope I get to make it friday.

lf
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  #15  
Old 09-07-2005, 01:19 AM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Results

I appreciate all the comments. I'm normally not so argumentative, and I probably shouldn't have posted the hand, as it is drasticlly read dependant.

Anyway. I folded the flop. The turn blanked off. SB bet, UTG raised and SB auto called.

River blanked. Check/Call.

UTG showed 55 for a flopped set. SB mucked AA face up in disgust. I can understand people's opinion about the flop fold being out of line, but I thought I nailed the read and, had I KNOWN that UTG had a set, I think folding is the right play.

Thanks again for the input, any other comments are appreciated.

lf
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  #16  
Old 09-07-2005, 03:19 AM
DpR DpR is offline
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Default Re: Is it that hard to actually put the why with the what?

Regarding your hand ranges for the opponents, I cannot convince you they are off since you know the players in the game better than me. That said, IMO a weak tight player could have the hands I mentioned and the tricky guy may could have hands he wants to jam rather than protect (there are many of them with that board). He still does not have a reason to be at all certain that he is behind you. In fact with something like 89s he could still reasonably think that he is in the lead.

Bottom line is, your hand is far from defined and there is a board that begs good players to play very aggressive (even if they knew your hand strength) and bad players to cold call - and this was exactly what happened.

The truth will be told on the turn. You gotta be there to see what happens - especially for 1 small bet.

Of course you could be behind here, but I think you are ahead more often than not. Further, as I mentioned in previous post it is an important fact that when you are way behind you are not going to have to put any more money in the pot as you can fold for two bets on the turn.
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  #17  
Old 09-07-2005, 12:49 PM
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Default Re: Another silly fold?

In your OP you said she (UTG) would play small suited cards. In your follow up response, you said she wouldn't.
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  #18  
Old 09-07-2005, 01:40 PM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Another silly fold?

[ QUOTE ]
In your OP you said she (UTG) would play small suited cards. In your follow up response, you said she wouldn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re-read the OP. I didn't write that part very well, but I meant smaller broadway cards, like QJ and JT and stuff like that.

sorry for the confusion.

lf
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