Fold the flop?

AlmightyJay · #1 12-07-2005, 10:04 PM

UI overcards suck.

This was a while ago, so I don't really remember any reads. But the table was very very loose. I'm getting 11:1, but all I have is a single overcard and no draws. The board is very ragged, but is this just an easy fold?

Actually, the more I look at it, the more this seems like a fold. I really have nothing. If UTG is betting a Q, I'm drawing to 3 outs.. if he's betting another pair then I have odds to call, but players behind me reduce them. There are only a couple straight draws, and no flush draws.

If you do play, you raise to hopefully clean up some outs, right?

EDIT: Looked at UTG+1 in PT, I see he's extremely loose passive. This seems to make folding even more desirable, since there's a higher chance he's betting a Q.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero...

Eeegah · #2 12-07-2005, 10:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Look at UTG+1 in PT, I see he's extremely loose passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the end of the discussion as far as I'm concerned. We're lucky if he just has a Q.

Str8Fish · #3 12-07-2005, 10:11 PM

Usually if I have 2 overcards to the board, I'll re-raise to see if the raiser has a monster or to protect my hand in a big pot. In this case, you might be reverse dominated. UTG+1 might have AQ, A8, A6, all of which take away your odds to your outs. I guess that's another reason why you would only have 1.5 outs to your ace. You have no backdoor flush draw and 1.5 outs to a straight (is that correct, or is it only 1?) giving you a total of ~3 outs (7-to-1). Your pot odds are 11-to-1 at the point where UTG+1 bet so you should definitely call. You should also re-evaluate your outs at the turn and once again compare to the pot. You have to be aggressive in big pots, so raising is probably the best option. If you raise, the people behind you have the odds of 13-to-2 or 6.5-to-1, which is less than 3 outs to win. Isolate yourself to the raiser if you can in this big pot.

#4 12-07-2005, 10:13 PM

I think this is a fold against most opponents, and an easy fold against a loose passive. He might just have a pair here, but he probably has at least a queen. Just keep an eye on him and see what type of hand he shows down, and how often he's betting into the PFR like this.

AlmightyJay · #5 12-07-2005, 10:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Usually if I have 2 overcards to the board, I'll re-raise to see if the raiser has a monster or to protect my hand in a big pot. In this case, you might be reverse dominated. UTG+1 might have AQ, A8, A6, all of which take away your odds to your outs. I guess that's another reason why you would only have 1.5 outs to your ace. You have no backdoor flush draw and 1.5 outs to a straight (is that correct, or is it only 1?) giving you a total of ~3 outs (7-to-1). Your pot odds are 11-to-1 at the point where UTG+1 bet so you should definitely call. You should also re-evaluate your outs at the turn and once again compare to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Three outs is 14:1, not 7:1. And this BDSD would probably only be around .75 outs.

God, what a stupid question. This fold is so easy it hurts. I just always have trouble folding to one bet when I raised preflop. I feel dumb for posting this.

Eeegah · #6 12-07-2005, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have no backdoor flush draw and 1.5 outs to a straight (is that correct, or is it only 1?)

[/ QUOTE ]

We can only make a straight one way: KT--this is 0.5 outs.

Str8Fish · #7 12-07-2005, 10:17 PM

ah crap... got the straight and the odds wrong in my post. Oh well... you get the point. Compare your outs to the pot. But you still have to realize this is a BIG pot! You need to win it by being aggressive.

Eeegah · #8 12-07-2005, 10:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But you still have to realize this is a BIG pot! You need to win it by being aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aggression won't cut it here unless we show up to UTG+1's house with a .38. We're the preflop raiser, and we're being bet into by someone who won't bet without a monster (and certainly not an OESD). We're done.

AlmightyJay · #9 12-07-2005, 10:25 PM

Mr. loose/passive actually bet an 8 on this flop, amazingly. 70% VPIP, 3% PFR, and 0.57 AF, and he bet middle pair into a preflop raiser. I seriously did a double-take when I looked at the results.. but yes, those are his stats. Like I said though, I don't remember a more specific read. He also turned trips, so it must have been his pattern mapper.

I played not goot poker. But I did bail out on the turn.

#10 12-07-2005, 10:28 PM

Yeah that aggression factor is not really THAT low for being involved in so many hands. Some of these types of players will bet any pair into the PFR, make that note so you won't be afraid to pop him next time you make a hand.