a QQ hand...

[lil feller]

MP1 is 21/11/2.0 over about 300 hands
MP2 is 24/13/1.8 over about 100 hands

MP1 has been raising lite and ramming on the SB streets w/ marginal holdings the last couple orbits, might be tilting. MP2 seemed reasonable post flop, and aware enough to raise a draw for value on the flop. Where should I have found my fold here?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (12.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (16.83 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 18.83 BB

I'll put my thoughts on the flop up a little later.

thanks,

lf

[hobbsmann]

I think just peeling the turn after MP2's first raise looking to spike a Q or pick up a heart draw getting 19:1 is the best move.

[ QUOTE ]
I think just peeling the turn after MP2's first raise looking to spike a Q or pick up a heart draw getting 19:1 is the best move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[brick]

There's very a small chance you're ahead and a small chance you'll hit a queen.

If you're ahead of both opponents and neither bluff on the river 3% of the time then you're giving up you're share of ~.42-.45 BB

When you're behind you'll average less than 2 full outs.
1.9 outs / 46 * 18BB expected pot = .74BB with implied odds.

Combined Equity:
.74+.42=1.16
So if you think you'll catch a bluff or draw that didn't get there 3/100 times then you can peel profitably.

[brick]

As Stoxtrader said in a recent thread by raising "you're encouraging action you don't want and discouraging action you want." If he has a good draw you don't make much in extra EV by raising, but if he has you beat you're giving money away.
If MP1 has a lot of equity he's going to call 2 bets, if he has a small amount of equity then "forcing him out" may not be the most profitable play.

Weighing the options I would call the flop and re-evaluate on the turn.

[lil feller]

I understand where you're coming from, however if I just call the flop, whats my turn line? Obviously if its a Q i'm jumping for joy.

I bet the flop because I thought it still likely I was in front. When MP1 just called I figured he had some medium PP, like JJ or TT. The c/r from MP2 looked like heart draw (its important that the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is not on the board) or AA. The purpose of my 3 bet was to better define both of their hands to make the turn easier, and in a perfect world give myself a cheaper look at the river.

Once MP1 called 2 more that rules out JJ or TT, so either he;s got some wimpy K, AA, a set, or the nut heart draw. When MP2 caps, that seals the deal that one of them certainly has the big draw, and the other has the big hand. I only called the 4th flop bet because I had the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in my hand and figured either Q was good enough. I was folding any non Q turn, including a heart.

Does that make sense? Am i paying too much for the information?

lf

Good line. One of these jokers has a hand, I'm betting on AK or KK here. Even still, you have to give this up on the turn, else you spew chips.


Tex

[brick]

You did a good job developing a plan and sticking with it.
I've been actively trying to tone down my agression in spots where I seem to be building a pot with no purpose, but it seems you had a good purpose for the raise.

It would be tougher decision on the turn if MP1 folds. But if I guess that depends on whether he would cap and lead with a draw.

[lil feller]

MP1 had 88, MP2 had AK of hearts.

Thanks for the replies, comments always welcome

lf