Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please) - Page 4

yvesaint · #31 11-17-2005, 05:18 PM

i hate CB in this spot, especially for 1/2 pot, you are going to get called by a lot, and a lot of the time and you have basically only 6 outs to improve

also when he leads into you on the turn, he probably has 77-JJ, and i doubt he will fold an overpair to a raise

he definitely doesnt put you on a 4

but really this is a marginal situation that is easily avoided by not CB-ing this flop with button still to act against 3 other players

Andrew Fletcher · #32 11-17-2005, 05:20 PM

If he really is weak postflop, then I assume this is a bad spot to bluff. A turn raise from a OOP player usually means bad news. If you c/r, will he actually lay down a hand?

fathertime · #33 11-17-2005, 06:08 PM

*Only goes to showdown around 20% or so. So somewhat weak postflop.*

What is a strong postflop showdown %?

Wish I had something to say about whether you should bluff the turn but I'm really unsure.

soah · #34 11-17-2005, 06:19 PM

You bet the flop into three opponents. He still wants to put $100 (or more) in the pot. King high no good. Next hand.

Next time just check the flop. Someone has a pocket pair and they aren't folding it, especially to that crap bet. Building a bigger pot to steal with nothing is major chip spewing.

iceman5 · #35 11-17-2005, 06:46 PM

Continuation bet is bad. That size CB is worse.

You made a point of saying that hes weak post flop because he gets to showdown 20%. I disagree that this means hes weak, but if you think it makes him weak, then thats all the more reason to fold.

How often do YOU get to showdown?

BobboFitos · #36 11-17-2005, 07:28 PM

no, you should fold

jonnyUCB · #37 11-17-2005, 08:40 PM

What would you do with an overpair here? How about a set? I thnk you'd be calling here. A raise reeks badly in this spot.

I don't think there's any hand you would raise with here EXCEPT a bluff and the straight - and if villian is thinking they will know this.

#38 11-17-2005, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What would you do with an overpair here? How about a set? I thnk you'd be calling here. A raise reeks badly in this spot.

I don't think there's any hand you would raise with here EXCEPT a bluff and the straight - and if villian is thinking they will know this.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

#39 11-17-2005, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is his hand range

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he's TAG, but with a VPIP of 33 I think he can have a suited connector, since button is in.

So, he can have some draws (76, 75, 87, 77) some kind of strong hands (56, 53, set, 88-JJ) and some 4's (44, 34, 54, 64) so I fold

A bluff from him seems unlikely

TheWorstPlayer · #40 11-18-2005, 12:13 AM

Well I guess it's unanimous. No one likes the CB. No one likes the size of the CB. No one likes to bluff the turn. I'm not sure if I should bother trying to justify any of this hand then. Maybe I should just realize the whole thing is bad. Anyways, I pushed and he folded. Pretty sure he had a small overpair. It just SCREAMED to me that he was leading and folding to a raise with his bet size and the fact that he led out instead of waiting for me to commit myself and then check/raising. I figured that he would check/raise a set or a straight. Or if he decided to bet, he would bet more and hope I called with an overpair. It just seemed SO obvious that he was thinking "I might be good, but I don't want to commit myself so I'll bet only 75 into the 130 pot and fold if he pushes." So I pushed. And he folded.