What do you think of this move I made on last hand of tourney......

[Dan Mezick]

Whether this was a good move depends on the range of hands this player is capable of playing. If he was a random luckbox you almost certainly could have done better.

Obviously you thought he wasn't a random luckbox. So given that assumption you did great assuming the range of hands he might play were solid in a head-up situation.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Whether this was a good move depends on the range of hands this player is capable of playing. If he was a random luckbox you almost certainly could have done better.

Obviously you thought he wasn't a random luckbox. So given that assumption you did great assuming the range of hands he might play were solid in a head-up situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy had a 1.35:1 chip lead on him going into the hand, with each having between 9.5 and 13BB. He is committed to his hand, unless he wants to be facing a 2.75:1 chip lead. 78s is a 53:47 DOG to a random hand. Let's call it 50/50. The only real sin you can make in HU is being too tight and/or too passive. This guy is correctly pushing with QTo over the top of a bad raise here, so I don't think his play is going to be very exploitable with these stack to blind ratios. We'll say they are even. Here's the EV of the deal (ICM used to calculate non deal EV's)

EV if guy calls and hero wins: ~268
EV if hero folds: ~153
EV taking the deal: 200
EV of OP folding: 153
EV of getting all in here (against a random hand) < 0.5*268 + 0.5*100 = 182.50

For this to be break even for villain, P = chance hero wins, we need:
P*132 + (1-p)*300 = 200
P ~= 59.5

Villain needs to be worse than a 60/40 dog against the range of hands hero would offer this deal with to make this offer good to take. The fact that hero is even offering it suggests this is not the case. (As it was, villain was over a 60% favorite in the hand.)


How does all this relate to psychology? Well, it is very easy to underestimate the value of skill at this phase of a tournament. Luck just domintates these situations.

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
Whether this was a good move depends on the range of hands this player is capable of playing. If he was a random luckbox you almost certainly could have done better.

Obviously you thought he wasn't a random luckbox. So given that assumption you did great assuming the range of hands he might play were solid in a head-up situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the last break about a half hour before (maybe 4 players left), I was talking to others outside and said "This guy started super tight but has loosened as the blinds progressed. He's been pushing with premiums in late stage, but mark my words he's going to push soon with something small, only because we've seen a fewof his premium pushes shown down."

And again, this was his very first week there so he was a blank slate. The only thing you could tell was he knew how to raise, which lends creedence to having some experience.

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whether this was a good move depends on the range of hands this player is capable of playing. If he was a random luckbox you almost certainly could have done better.

Obviously you thought he wasn't a random luckbox. So given that assumption you did great assuming the range of hands he might play were solid in a head-up situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy had a 1.35:1 chip lead on him going into the hand, with each having between 9.5 and 13BB. He is committed to his hand, unless he wants to be facing a 2.75:1 chip lead. 78s is a 53:47 DOG to a random hand. Let's call it 50/50. The only real sin you can make in HU is being too tight and/or too passive. This guy is correctly pushing with QTo over the top of a bad raise here, so I don't think his play is going to be very exploitable with these stack to blind ratios. We'll say they are even. Here's the EV of the deal (ICM used to calculate non deal EV's)

EV if guy calls and hero wins: ~268
EV if hero folds: ~153
EV taking the deal: 200
EV of OP folding: 153
EV of getting all in here (against a random hand) < 0.5*268 + 0.5*100 = 182.50

For this to be break even for villain, P = chance hero wins, we need:
P*132 + (1-p)*300 = 200
P ~= 59.5

Villain needs to be worse than a 60/40 dog against the range of hands hero would offer this deal with to make this offer good to take. The fact that hero is even offering it suggests this is not the case. (As it was, villain was over a 60% favorite in the hand.)


How does all this relate to psychology? Well, it is very easy to underestimate the value of skill at this phase of a tournament. Luck just domintates these situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. Thanks.

Should my lesson here be that pushing is a much better option than raising to $7K with my 78s? That's what I'm seeing anyway.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]


Should my lesson here be that pushing is a much better option than raising to $7K with my 78s? That's what I'm seeing anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, with this small of a stack in relation to the blinds, you are pot committed if you raise anyway, so you should just push. If villain will let you limp in, this is a good hand to limp in with. Unfortunately, limping usually means weakness and an aggressive villain will jump all over you regardless of their cards. Really, this stage is one big luck fest unless one of the parties folds too much or does not push often enough. The blinds are 8.6% off all the chips in play, you are probably right to push any two from the sb, at least until villain loosens up his calling standards.

I agree w/ the guy that said he would've just pushed all-in w/ the hand anyway at this point. If you're ever going to win HU as the small stack, you gotta take a stab at the pot w/ mediocre hands. 78s is one of those hands in my opinion. This still doesn't say much for the other guy's confidence in his game that he split w/ a big chip lead HU. I'd never do that, unless I'm falling asleep or something.