wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

[woodguy]

I take it there are 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop and another comes on the turn right?

If there are two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop then I hate this:

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the guy raises to 4500, Bax reraises to 9k, and the guy calls.

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That bet does nothing but juice the pot, giving 4-1 to call, so the flat call doesn't tell him much.

If I'm right and there are 3 spades on the board at the turn, I may check/call to fill up depending on the price.

If Bax hasn't seen the villian play the nutflush draw aggressively then this hand is much harder for him than it is for us, but I don't understand his minraise, unless he was trying to get the villian to come over top of him, but bleh, it really hurt him here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

wow, i'm certainly getting the clock called on me on this one. What's Bax's image? Pretty aggressive? Could the other guy possibly put him on 3 betting the flush draw on the flop? Which of the flop cards was red? The other guy seemed pretty straightforward, and he hadn't seen him raise w/ the flush draw previously, so all signs sure seem to point towards something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx or black AA-QQ or even 55.
I'm having trouble seeing the guy put Bax on a 3bet flush draw and not 4bet the flop w/ 55. The guy has to have a biggish hand there on the flop to call the 3rd bet, right? Maybe something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] (probably doesn't call preflop) or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to raise and call the flop.

Yuck Yuck Yuck. Though we are getting 2.5:1 and we are only 4:1 to fill up if were wrong. I'm still thinking....

[gobboboy]

Let's take it from the point of view from his opponent.

PFR (very well known, aggressive, tricky player) makes a standard raise and I call in position with XX. The flop comes J95 with two spades. He bets, I raise, he reraises, I call.

Here's the first thing. WOULD he just call here with top set with a board such as this? Would JohnnyBax put in a 3rd bet with a flush draw? He might. Would he with a set? He might. This guy doesn't know. If he's playing tight, it means he likely wants to survive till deep in the tournament a lot more than he'd like to take a shot at building a stack through laggy play. He's going to consider all options. Now if he gives Johnny a 20% chance of having the flush on the turn, is he going to push it in with JJ? I don't think so at all. He's going to push the flop. Same with 55.

I think we have to give him credit for the flush here and fold. Given our reads, it's the most likely thing. He also might have had a straight draw, which would make sense for his raise on the flop.

Remember, Johnny showed a desire to get all the money in on the flop but still wanted action. This guy is not going to put it all in without having that beat.

[ansky451]

I think the opponent knows how strong bax's hand is. I think he is happy with that, and thats why he is pushing here. With a lower set I think he wants a cheaper showdown. I actually like the fold, and there are very few circumstances in which I'd make it... ie i don't think i ever fold this online.

I think that if opponent is super tight, he's not exactly the type who is switching gears against the man. He's just looking at the cards.

So what about the turn? How about a CHECK here? Anyone want to join me for that reasoning? Super tight opponents tend to do super tight little things when leading out, even when they have big hands. He may give Johnny just the price he is looking for in order to catch a full house on the river if he has the flush. Let's say opponent has AsJ. Would opponent go all-in here? No, chances are he will give Johnny a better price to see the river. 55 may be an all-in, but probably not from a super-tight with three spades on the board, because Johnny is the type who'd play a flush draw like that too. I say use the super-tight player to your advantage and let him do the work.

Argun

[Riverman]

I would probably make a much larger (pot-committing) reraise on the flop. As played, I don't really like the turn bet. I would check and try to get a read.

[adanthar]

I really dislike the under-3 bet and think that's where the problem with the hand is. However, he's probably right to fold after the push - although I would have check/called the turn given the fact that opponent's comparatively likely to have spades.

[Roman]

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I really dislike the under-3 bet and think that's where the problem with the hand is. However, he's probably right to fold after the push - although I would have check/called the turn given the fact that opponent's comparatively likely to have spades.

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My thoughts on the hand are almost exactly the same as yours. The flop 3bet really put him in an ugly spot. I actually dont know if checking turn and risking the chance of another spade hitting the river is worth it either.

I have a hard time believing a super tight opponent played AsJx this way. Flop action appears to be AsKs or AsQs or JJ. I think I'm beat but probably going to look him up. I completely agree with all that said the size of the 3-bet was entirely too small. I like getting a lot more chips in on the flop here.

[gumpzilla]

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I have a hard time believing a super tight opponent played AsJx this way.

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I think there is an important distinction between an opponent who is super tight and an opponent who is reluctant to commit all his chips on a single hand with deep stacks. The latter tells us that when the money finally goes in he almost certainly has a strong holding, but unless we assume the former as well the range of possible holdings could still be reasonably wide, if that makes sense. Showing up with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and a J is a perfect example of the distinction.