Who plays this one/quick preflop?

[Nick Royale]

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I am not so sure about this. If the hand is played 4 handed for 3SB each, you need to make at least 22SB to play for set value alone. Given that there will already be 10.5SB put in by your opponents preflop, you only need to make up about 6BB post flop if you hit your set. Given the nature of the game, I can easily see this happening.

Even if, as is quite possible, the betting is capped preflop, I still think you can consider playing if you think it will be 4 handed or better. You would then need to make up about 8BB post flop when you hit. This pot is likely to end up a monster.

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I'm not sure how you came to this, but I would do it like this:

<u>4 players to the flop for 3 SB each:</u>
3:10 (pot odds)
1:10 (odds you'll win the pot)
3:30 (odds you'll win the pot times the number of bets you have to put in)

30 - 10 = 20 SB

You'll have to make 10BB postflop according to this scenario. A scenario of 5 players to the flop for 4 bets each would result in 11BB and 5 players for 3 bets each 8.5BB. I think you'll need to expect to win an average of ~10BB to be able to make this call preeflop, and I don't think we can expect that. It seems to me that most of the time we'll have to fold this flop when we miss and the only thing this LAG does to make it closer a call is the fact that he makes the implied odds when hitting better. Still I don't think he makes this preflop call close.