99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?

[ErrantNight]

bet the turn next time.

[@bsolute_luck]

i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

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bet the turn next time.

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[molawn2mo]

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of those hands of which you are ahead, you'll please note that all of them have outs against you.

there's no way you have 40% pot equity against three opponents here... there's virtually no way you can force anyone out on the flop no matter how you play the hand, and there's a BUNCH of scary cards that can fall on the turn. you can't protect your hand, you don't have enough equity to bet/raise, so you're waiting for the turn, and hoping to hit.

a donk bet (from you) on the turn when the safe card falls might have some merit. in such a scenario, you're preventing the button from getting a free look at the river with his AKs. you may not be folding anyone out, but at least here the bet is better.

if the button had bet the turn, and been called in two places, it becomes increasingly unlikely that even on the safe turn that your 99 will hold up, and i think a fold would be an option here.

as the hand actually played out, it was checked around. NOW it appears your hand is likely best. the river becomes complicated by UTG, who now bets. it's a large enough pot, and from the way the hand played out it seems relatively certain that your hand is better than the two preflop aggressors, so I'd call. but it's close.



further, at this point, the preflop capper is the opponent to be most afraid of. however, there's nothing you can do on the flop to protect your hand. lastly, if you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. for the handful of times you're ahead on this flop, you're dominated far more.

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1. I agree that I don;t have 40% pot equity after assessing the re-draws (as I thought I said in my post), I just couldn;t quantify that haircut.
2. We disagree on the FOld Equity concept. Lots of hands are folding for 2 bets on the flop even though the pot is big.
3. I advocated leading the turn when the safe card hits, as played by OP and as I envisioned playing it.
4. If button had bet the turn and got called in 2 places, I believe that we would have had odds to call our 2 outer, but that is easily calculable.
5. River is, I agree, easily callable.
6. I think it improper to classify our flop position as only being ahead a "handful of times," especially after seeing the turn action.
7. Lastly, investing the additional SB on the flop (the issue that I first raised and that you took and take exception to, may allow us to release this hand earlier and more cheaply when we are behind, a concept not heretofore raised in the analysis.

This has been a very interesting discussion and I am greatful to have had the time and clarity to have participated.

Any others have thoughts, here?

[ErrantNight]

the fact that the turn was checked through and the river is a blank (and an undercard to our pair) means UTG doesn't have to have a Q. he might, but the range of his hands is wide open. betting the turn would help solve this equation.

[istewart]

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bet the turn next time.

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Elaborate a bit? This is easy to say after button checks through but we know nothing about him and he capped preflop and bet the flop. We're not ahead often.

[ErrantNight]

1. we're cool
2. i disagree... and if they are folding, we're not gaining many outs (say, absolute tops, 6, if we fold a JT and button has AKs).... but i think the biggest argument is that in order for this to be the right play you have to peg button for precisely AKs AND the propensity to raise it if bet into
3. nice
4. you would be getting 1:15 on your turn call. you're drawing to 2:46... you don't have the odds... except that you might still be ahead. however... you shouldn't check the turn.
5. yup
6. this is precisely why we're disagreeing on this hand. you're taking a look at the turn action to justify flop actions. however, when you don't have the benefit of knowing in advance that the button will check behind on the turn, AND that the turn is not a scare card, you can't so easily make that flop judgement.
7. if you're raised on the flop (after leading) and the turn is a, do you bet again? do you check/fold? what happens if it's raised and called in two places, it gets checked around, and the river comes up a K? the point is, there's a ton of cards that can fall on the turn that are bad for us, and we may already be behind, we can see the turn cheaply, probably, and if not (someone is c/r'ing the flop), we can get out for the absolute minimum (zero)

this is a pretty clear wait for the turn scenario. on this favorable turn, you've got to bet the turn to prevent AKs from getting a free shot to outdraw you.

[molawn2mo]

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i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

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given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

[ErrantNight]

it's either bet/fold or check/fold. assuming villain caps preflop with AK, it's far more likely that he has that than a AKs or AKo. if he has JJ or TT, or they're out there, any combination of betting/calling at this point may force them out. but really, the point is to prevent AK from drawing for free. if you're raised, easy fold. if you're called, easy check on the river (and the only person that should reasonably have a Q after it's checked to you on the turn is, perhaps, UTG). it's a big pot, do everything you can to win it. here, that means not offering infinite odds on the turn to hands with outs against you. on the flop, with two cards to come and offering odds for everyone to call you with anything, there's no point.

i had originally been ok with the turn check, and i'm willing to hear argument that it's preferable, but the more i've analyzed this hand, the more clear it becomes that a turn bet is best.

[@bsolute_luck]

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i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

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given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

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that may be true and obviously my guess of hands that he would have to have to bet this river was true: 33. in this case i was mistaken by the "fold suggestion", but my turn donkbet was full of wisdom [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]