99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere? - Page 2

ErrantNight · #11 09-13-2005, 02:16 PM

further, we don't know that button is aggressive at all, let alone overly aggressive. and he just raised/capped the field and is yet to act. please put him on a range of hands.

#12 09-13-2005, 02:23 PM

I would have raised preflop. I think that would have put you in a more commanding position during post flop play.

molawn2mo · #13 09-13-2005, 02:36 PM

My "read" that button may be aggressive is from the OP's own words, tentative as they are. But even if he is not "overly" aggressive, he did cap preflop and, as such, I want to use him to limit the field.

Yeah, I may be behind to him and lose. But if I succeed in getting it heads up or 3 way, I have increased my pot equity significantly.

Be gentle with me on the calc below, i suck at this and am using this opportunity to improve.

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQs,AJs are the reasonble hand ranges.
6+6+3+6+6+16+3+4=50 total hands
we are ahead of 20 hands

We have 40% pot equity but are very, very vulnerable to being drawn out upon.

Isn't the preceding sentence consistant with trying to reduce the field?

I rarely do this sort of mathmatical analysis and would appreciate yours and others critique, here.

TripleH68 · #14 09-13-2005, 02:38 PM

I think the problem here is if the button holds AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AQ,KQ hero needs to hit a 2-outer to win or is drawing near dead. Limiting the field would not accomplish much.

Bodhi · #15 09-13-2005, 02:44 PM

Booooo! Raise preflop. Bet the turn. etc... Remember, you want people to cold call your 99 raise with trash.

molawn2mo · #16 09-13-2005, 02:52 PM

You are certainly correct but, imh and many-times wrong opinion, the calculation on the efficacy of the flop raise is a Baysean-type analysis and must take into account fold equity and other factors that I am not competent to calculate. You are rarely, in poker, in a position where you are certainly ahead. Betting and raising are devices to increase the pot if you win, certainly, but are more importantly devices to manipulate the field into coming along or folding, as best meets your needs.

A rather simplistic idea is if we have 40% equity on the flop before betting, how much additional equity can we gain by facing the field with 2 bets? This is pretty much Fold Equity. I can't calculate it but I can recognize it.

ErrantNight · #17 09-13-2005, 02:57 PM

of those hands of which you are ahead, you'll please note that all of them have outs against you.

there's no way you have 40% pot equity against three opponents here... there's virtually no way you can force anyone out on the flop no matter how you play the hand, and there's a BUNCH of scary cards that can fall on the turn. you can't protect your hand, you don't have enough equity to bet/raise, so you're waiting for the turn, and hoping to hit.

a donk bet (from you) on the turn when the safe card falls might have some merit. in such a scenario, you're preventing the button from getting a free look at the river with his AKs. you may not be folding anyone out, but at least here the bet is better.

if the button had bet the turn, and been called in two places, it becomes increasingly unlikely that even on the safe turn that your 99 will hold up, and i think a fold would be an option here.

as the hand actually played out, it was checked around. NOW it appears your hand is likely best. the river becomes complicated by UTG, who now bets. it's a large enough pot, and from the way the hand played out it seems relatively certain that your hand is better than the two preflop aggressors, so I'd call. but it's close.

further, at this point, the preflop capper is the opponent to be most afraid of. however, there's nothing you can do on the flop to protect your hand. lastly, if you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. for the handful of times you're ahead on this flop, you're dominated far more.

ErrantNight · #18 09-13-2005, 02:59 PM

you don't have 40% equity on the flop.

poster certainly made things difficult with his read non-read of the button, but if you read his read in context (laugh, that was funny)... it isn't a read at all. besides, even overly aggressive players are not typically capping light. your best hope is that you're up against AKs, and, say, AJs or something. between the three of them, a higher pocket pair and/or a Q is not unlikely. you have zero fold equity on this flop. maybe on the turn, depending on the action, but not on the flop.

ErrantNight · #19 09-13-2005, 03:02 PM

to further my many furthers... you're hoping to get this headsup with a worse hand, correct? so not only are you hoping that the button will raise and your other, loose, opponents will fold their hands that, if not better, are at least filled with out against you, in this huge-ass pot... but that your overly aggressive button will raise this flop behind you with a worse hand than you.

that's an awful lotta wishin' and hopin' and prayin'

TripleH68 · #20 09-13-2005, 03:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

Button calls, BB folds.

UTG = 33.
Button = AK.
Hero wins with a pair of 9s.

Thanks for the discussion.