Pocket TT against a TAG (limited sample)

[mojobluesman]

Villian is 11% VPIP and 11% preflop raise, but after only 25 hands.

Should I bet this river?

My assumption was that I was going to call any bet anyway, so I might as well bet for value and for the remote possibility he would fold a weak J.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[HouseCalls]

Preflop - good
Flop - good

If MP1 is a reasonable player I would put him on AJ, KJ, QJ or JT calling down with top pair but afraid you have top pair with better kicker or an overpair given your preflop raise. The other possibility is a heart flush draw though a TAG might go for a free card play in that spot.

Turn - Based on above a check here might give you some info; if he bets he probably has a J if he checks he's more likely on the flush draw.

River - as played against a TAG I c/c to avoid possible raise. I don't think the bet will make him fold if he has a J and he will fold if he missed the flush so it has no value. (Against the typical low limit LP-P The value bet here may be worth it)

Would he play a weaker pp like this? I think we are losing here, but maybe he has a flush draw of a smaller pp and he will bluff/bet the river, so maybe I c/c. I could be convinced to c/f the river. I don't know if we are good 1 in 7. This is pretty dependent on the read, but it looks like you are beat.

[mojobluesman]

I see why the check call is better assuming he's a player and there's a good probability he had the J.

I avoid the potential river raise.

However, I run into a lot of bad players that call down with weaker pairs. I realy don't want to miss a good value bet either.

The problem in this case was that the read I had was based on a very limited sample and I really wasn't sure what I was dealing with yet.

[HouseCalls]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I run into a lot of bad players that call down with weaker pairs. I realy don't want to miss a good value bet either.

The problem in this case was that the read I had was based on a very limited sample and I really wasn't sure what I was dealing with yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree in general with value betting the micro's whenever reasonable. All depends on how comfortable you are with your read.

[DCWildcat]

It's good that you included the sample size of your hands on him; if it were more meaningful, I'd be inclined to change your line. But since it's not, I'm ok with your line.

vnh

[ChuckyB]

The four-straight, three-flush and villain's resistance to going away thus far make this a check-call river for me.

What would you have done if he raised you on the river?

[shant]

The sample's way too small to think he's a TAG, and if he was a TAG, I see no hand he can coldcall preflop with a J in it.

AJs? KJs?