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#1
12-06-2005, 04:38 AM
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Tough spot 5/10 JJ
UTG+2 opens, HJ 3-bets, I cap JJ in the BB. No real read on my opponents, but I have been playing fairly tight. I had not seen the HJ 3-bet preflop before, so I'm not quite sure of his 3-betting range. Does this look like a scared QQ?
UTG+2 folds and its heads up to the flop of K99 rainbow. I bet he calls. Turn is a 7. I bet he calls. River is a T. And the river line is... 
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#2
12-06-2005, 04:54 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
You're only ahead of AQ here and I don't think he has that very often. He also appears to be calling you down, fearing AA, KK or AK. He usually has QQ. Getting ~9:1, I would probably check/call and wish I had check/folded.
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#3
12-06-2005, 05:12 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
AA - 6
KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.
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#4
12-06-2005, 05:12 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that. But I'm not very optimistic. I think Villain probably either has QQ or even AK (he could be scared of AA) or is slowplaying.
You probably won't get a bet out of AQ no matter what you do. But I'd be choosing between bet-folding (hoping Villain will call with AQ or a stubbornly played pocket underpair) or check-calling (hoping he'll bluff if checked to). Edit: Oops, I got the sequence of cards mixed up.
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#5
12-06-2005, 05:21 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that. [/ QUOTE ] The ten came on the river.
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#6
12-06-2005, 05:23 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11
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#7
12-06-2005, 05:27 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11 [/ QUOTE ] If we decide to call down on the turn because of this we have to keep in mind that we are getting 10.5:2 to call down. imo if he has AQ/TT he is not betting the turn so if the turn goes check/bet the likelihood that we are behind is higher.
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#8
12-06-2005, 05:31 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point.
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#10
12-06-2005, 05:36 AM
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Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AA - 6 KK - 3 QQ - 6 JJ - 1 TT - 3 99 - 1 AK - 12 AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point. [/ QUOTE ] Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.
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