Top set against a suspected flushdraw

[MoDOH]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($1078.65)
Hero ($400.2)
CO ($344.74)
Button ($225.4)
SB ($76)
BB ($236.3)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $8, CO calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $6, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($40) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, CO calls $30, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Turn: ($100) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $100</font>...

really what i am asking for here is how big a bet do you think is proper in this spot? I have the second nuts at the moment, so it´s only a matter of getting value out of my hand. If I bet something like 150 here a flushdraw would be wrong to call here and I can put him all-in on the river regardless of what card that falls.
or is this overbet on the turn something that will make strong second best hands lay down their hands? like two pair or overpairs?

No reads on the villain as you understand...

[Mark It Zero!]

this is why you reraise JJ preflop. You're playing 6 max, is there a reason why you are playing this weak? OESD got there as well as a gutshot, so you have the 3rd nuts, not 2nd.

You've got top set on the turn, how is potting it an overbet? There's plenty of cards that can hit the river that will either a) kill your action or b) beat you, if you're not already beaten. So to answer your question, no leading $100 isn't bad... but it's much better to isolate and not have people behind you for 2xBB with you having 0 info on them.

It's very doubtful he has an overpair after calling flat calling twice, so you can safely rule that out. Mostly you're looking at him etiher having a flush draw, a straight, or something like 87. Pot it and hope he doesn't pop you back.

[MoDOH]

I know 100 isn´t an overbet...

i was asking if overbetting it to 150 would work...

And yes preflop is weak...
I usually reraise in this spot... really weak...

[Chris Daddy Cool]

proper turn bet amounts are very situational. it depends a lot on your opponent and how much is he willing to call (especially if he is prone to incorrectly call draws) and the table dynamic and your prior history with him.

against typical opponents i'm betting 75%-100% of the pot here. i almost never overbet. not sure if thats a leak or not, its just something i dont really do.

[theben]

9T and 56 beat you. not 2nd nuts

i'd bet about 80-100 and see what happens

[gomberg]

First off, a preflop reraise is a must here w/ many hands, especially a hand as strong as JJ. I just don't like other people getting away w/ min-raises especially if they do it w/ weakish, speculative hands (like most people do).

As far as the turn, lets look at some situations.

First, lets look at the hands he can have.

a) 2-pair or set - he's drawing almost dead and you'll get his money no matter what, so we don't worry about this situation.

b) 1-pair - he's drawing slim (gut-shot maybe) - you want him to call a decent bet

c) flush draw - you want him to make a mistake and call a decent bet

d) combo draw - he could have many outs against you - you want him to call a huge bet or fold to a big bet.

e) made straight - he's getting your money, so you won't worry about this one either

The pot is $100 and he has roughly $300 left. How much to bet.

1) $50. If he calls, the pot will be $200 and he will have $250 left on the river. If he has a straight / flush draw then he has plenty of leverage to call you here and not be making a mistake if he can get $100 off you on the river if he hits. This is only good if he's drawing dead and won't call any more money on this street if you bet bigger and you can get away on the river if outdrawn. Probably a bad option vs. his draws.

2) $100. Pot will be $300 on river and he'll have $200 left on the river. At this point w/out a read, you'll probably have to call an all-in on the river given 2.5:1 odds no matter what card hits. This means you're giving implied odds of 4:1. This is not enough for any hand unless he has a big combo draw. The question is will he call this. If he'll call this with a draw and a good made hand, then this is a good sized bet.

3) $150. Pot will be $400 and he'll have $150 left on river. Obviously this would be great if he'll call here. If you think there's a decent chance of a call of a overbet w/ a draw, then go for it - but against any decent player, they will fold a draw here - which is not what you want.

So in conclusion, I think the $100 bet is by far the best choice given no other information. If you think this guy will raise a weak bet, then go for the $50, but it is risky giving a cheap card on that board becuase it can kill river action and/or make you make a big mistake on the river (folding the best hand or paying off w/ the worst).

[longwyfrmlbc]

100 sounds about right to me, maybe something like 90. Your still giving incorrect odds for a draw, but it doesn't have the "feel" of a pot-sized bet that will fold out the pair hands.

[BobboFitos]

gom, one thing tho is the hands that are nearly drawing dead (to 1 out for example) most likely raise the turn all in themselves vs a pot bet.

if the turn bet is weak, villain if overaggro may jump over the "weakness" and semibluff the combo draws there, as well.

I like the full pot here, but there is a real argument to betting less.

i dont understand overbetting here, very few opponents are that bad to call that big of a bet w/ a draw that shouldn't be there, so it means things that would get all in anyway (straights and weaker lower hands) will so anyway, so you're just crushing the draws, which technically if you overcgarge them you want in.

i think CDC is right about 75% to 100% w/r to opponent.