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#1
09-01-2005, 02:13 PM
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Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
Since there's 10 players at the table, assuming that all are roughly equally skilled, should each player have a win rate of 10% of hands won in the long run?
Thanks -Matt 
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#5
09-01-2005, 02:39 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
I just dont understand how when Im on the coldest of cold streaks I look at my stats and I have 5-6 won hands out of 1000 played, for a 1% (less than), yet when Im on the hottest of hot streaks I look and my winrate is like 9%.
-Matt
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#6
09-01-2005, 02:50 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
[ QUOTE ]
I just dont understand how when Im on the coldest of cold streaks I look at my stats and I have 5-6 won hands out of 1000 played, for a 1% (less than), yet when Im on the hottest of hot streaks I look and my winrate is like 9%. [/ QUOTE ] Both numbers mean you're playing tighter than the average person at the table. If you win 9% of the hands and playing tightly so that you lose very little on the other 91%, you can be solidly ahead. A style-neutral player should win 10% of the hands, with gains that perfectly offset his/her losses on the other 90%. A maniac bordering on tilt might win 20% of the hands while frequently paying to see the flop, turn, etc. with second best on everything else. Those other 80% of the hands will ruin him. It's different playing styles that make the game sustainably interesting.
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#7
09-01-2005, 02:51 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
[ QUOTE ]
Since there's 10 players at the table, assuming that all are roughly equally skilled, should each player have a win rate of 10% of hands won in the long run? Thanks -Matt [/ QUOTE ] No, not remotely. If nobody ever folded you would win roughly 10% of hands because you'll end up with the best cards ten percent of the time. How many hands you actually win is largely dependent on how many hands you and your opponents play.
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#8
09-01-2005, 03:50 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
No. Equally skilled players may still have widely different playing styles. Playing style has a significant impact on the number of pots you will win.
The % of pots won is basically an unimportant stat - akin to junk science, really. Some might try to use it as justification for losing money ("It's not my fault! I'm only winning half as many pots as I'm supposed to!") but it means nothing. The game is not about winning pots, it's about winning the most $$$. Look at other numbers for better information on how you're playing. You may indeed be experiencing lower returns than you should due to variance, but don't look at the % of pots won to try to figure that out. It's just not going to tell you anything useful.
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#9
09-01-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
[ QUOTE ]
No. Equally skilled players may still have widely different playing styles. [/ QUOTE ] No. You have contradicted yourself. Players with widely different playing styles do not have equal skills. Different playing styles are unequal by virtue of being different. Different and equal are mutually exclusive. A passive player is not equal to an aggressive player; a loose player is not equal to a tight player. To clarify for you, if you take yourself and clone it 9 times, sit all 10 at a poker table, and play hold'em until the long run comes, each one of you and your clones should be expected to win 10% of your respective hands. This should be straightforward. EDIT: I do, however, agree wholeheartedly with the rest of your post. EDIT EDIT: The problem is in the phrasing of the question. It's premise, that the players are equally skilled, is a fallacy that would never apply to real life.
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#10
09-01-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: Should I win 10% of hands in long run?
[ QUOTE ]
I just dont understand how when Im on the coldest of cold streaks I look at my stats and I have 5-6 won hands out of 1000 played, for a 1% (less than), yet when Im on the hottest of hot streaks I look and my winrate is like 9%. -Matt [/ QUOTE ] It's because you are most likely tighter than your opponents. Loose opponents are going to win more than their share of hands, but most likely lose more than their share of money simply by virtue of being involved in more hands than you.
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