Phil Gordon's "Fish N Chip" Sandwich

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
There's about 18K in the pot when it gets to me. I put in my 5K and reraise 8K. The initial raiser reraises to isolate, matching my 8 and moving all in. This means I invested 13K to win (18+13+8) or 39K, or exactly 3 to 1. I'm only a 2:1 underdog to AK getting 3:1 on my money. What's not to like?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your calculations are a little off. You are betting 11.5K. The amount posted in the BB doesn't count. The amount to win is 1.5K BB + 13K opponent + 10K two callers who folded + 1K ante = 25.5K, so you are getting 2.2-1 pot odds.

76s is 42% against AKo (41% if he has one of your suit) or 1.4-1 pot odds.

You got a good result in this case. However, the problem is what if UTG has JJ or some othe pair, rather than AK. 76s is 23% against AA and slightly worse against TT.

If multiple players flat call you or call UTGs push, you will actually have the highest win percentage, provided no one has an over pair. However, someone may have an over pair.

In summary, you got a good result here, although you lost. However, I think you are better off folding, although it is fairly close.

In Gordon's actual application of this he's usually looking for a loose EP raiser to make this play on. In most cases I'm sure he wouldn't mind a fold. The only reason he doesn't hate a call in this spot is due to the overlay the pot is providing thanks to the dead money. I like the play. Picking the right spot to use it doesn't appear to be easy. Even with the great pot odds, I'm not really wanting to place myself in a position where I bust out >40% of the time.

As far as comparing the EV vs AK or JJ in this spot, since when do the majority of posters use tight 1-handed ranges when figuring their odds and equity in a pot? We all use ranges and the math makes it easy to look back and see what our equity in this pot is versus any range. Pick a reasonable range here and calculate the expectation versus the range, not a single hand. If we were all to go through our own HH files and pick out hands to recalculate our EV versus the actual hand shown down I'm sure we'd have made tons of mistakes cumulatively.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
In Gordon's actual application of this he's usually looking for a loose EP raiser to make this play on. In most cases I'm sure he wouldn't mind a fold. The only reason he doesn't hate a call in this spot is due to the overlay the pot is providing thanks to the dead money. I like the play. Picking the right spot to use it doesn't appear to be easy. Even with the great pot odds, I'm not really wanting to place myself in a position where I bust out >40% of the time.

As far as comparing the EV vs AK or JJ in this spot, since when do the majority of posters use tight 1-handed ranges when figuring their odds and equity in a pot? We all use ranges and the math makes it easy to look back and see what our equity in this pot is versus any range. Pick a reasonable range here and calculate the expectation versus the range, not a single hand. If we were all to go through our own HH files and pick out hands to recalculate our EV versus the actual hand shown down I'm sure we'd have made tons of mistakes cumulatively.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as JJ and AK, I think this in correct and we don't need a range. 88-AA play similarly versus 76s and AT-AK, KQ-KJ play similarly versus 76s. I think JJ and AK are pretty representative of the ranges.

If the idea of Gordon's play is that you are looking to pick up the pot, this is a misapplication or a different move. There is absolutely no way this push picks up the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
If the idea of Gordon's play is that you are looking to pick up the pot, this is a misapplication or a different move. There is absolutely no way this push picks up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually said:

[ QUOTE ]
In most cases I'm sure he wouldn't mind a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misinterpreted my post. I'm not saying he always wants a fold. The pot odds definitely justify the play - although it is a rather high variance play. I'm saying he's likely not upset with either result - taking it down now OR playing it out. I'm sure there's a small amount of FE in there. Perhaps it's not much but isn't it possible pairs like TT or JJ are folding here fearing they are a 4:1 dog? The fact that the overcallers didn't raise leads me to think they are very likely to fold in this spot. I'm fairly certain they don't have a big pair or AK in this spot.

In the OPs example the pot is barely laying 4:1 for the original raiser and there are no more implied odds by getting the pot HU with hero. If the original raiser fears being up against AA or KK calling this push or coming over the top of it is marginal at best - and at this stage of a MTT he may not think this is a big enough edge to push since losing puts him in a really bad spot. I'm not so sure that you'll never pick up the pot here but you're probably right that those folds are very rare. The villains would need to hold a rather specific range of hands that hero's raise would be capable of folding out all of them in this spot.

However, if hero doesn't get the isolation he's looking for here then he could be in a really tough spot.

From Gordon's article:
[ QUOTE ]
The initial raiser now has to call a very significant raise of $1,200. This is a very tough call with all but the greatest of hands.

Unfortunately, this time, my timing was off and he found a hand. The other two players folded (they didn't have a hand worth re-raising, so how can they call $1,200 more? It was very, very unlikely that either of them would be able to call such a big reraise.) Even with the call, however, I've still made a pretty good play. The pot has $3,650. I'm 42% to win. My pre-flop equity is $1,533.
I'm getting exactly the right odds on my money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So he does look for folds in these spots. He isn't expecting the original raiser to really have a hand that can call this push very often. He's just figuring that even with a call he's not that bad off due to the equity the pot is offering.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Your right, my math was dorked up here....2.2 to 1 is still nice but not the 3:1 originally stated.

Here were some of my important considerations:

1) I figured a zero percent probability of picking up the pot right there with the reraise. Only the very worst players with the very worst holdings sitting in UTG's position fold here. In fact I'm counting on UTG to reraise here (preferably with big unpaired cards) to shut out the other callers.

2) The callers are typical of the ones Gordon described as the ideal to try this play (a bit too loose with PF raise-cold call standards). I saw no reason one of the other callers was doing something tricky like 2nd hand low.

3) Winning this pot gets me immediately back into the tournament hunt.

In the end, I got exactly what I wanted: My low suited connectors against big unpaired cards with 10K chips from the players shut out plus blinds and antes as overlay. I'm OK busting out here since I'd soon have to begin a long series of openpushes which is the poker equivalent of walking a minefield. If I make my hand however, I can continue play with a normal stack. It all comes down to what you are more comforatable with: One big risk now or many risks (without nearly this kind of overlay) in the tournament's near future. Personally, I was quite happy to get my chips in with the worst of it here.

[Lloyd]

Nice catch. At 2.2 to 1 odds this is a neutral EV play making it a clear fold to me given I still have enough chips to play if I fold. Good concept. Almost a perfect situation.

[Jurollo]

I probably fold here, however, FWIW if I was going to make this move this is one of the hands I do it with because you probably aren't in terrible shape.
~Justin